Political Fragmentation Deepens as Israeli Parties Struggle Below Electoral Threshold

A recent Channel 12 poll reveals significant challenges for several Israeli political parties struggling to surpass the electoral threshold ahead of the 2026 elections. Notably, Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein are attempting a high-stakes strategy to remain in the race, hoping other small parties will drop out first, allowing them to climb in the polls. Despite the recent alliance of Hendel and Trooper, Erdan's entry has pushed their combined support downward.

The poll also shows a shift in voter preferences, with Naftali Bennett and Benny Gantz gaining momentum. Bennett, recovering from a previous unsuccessful alliance with Yair Lapid, is focusing on work plans and has opened a slight lead in suitability for prime minister. Meanwhile, Benny Gantz continues to decline in support, raising questions about his campaign's effectiveness. Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot leads Benjamin Netanyahu by two mandates in this survey, marking a notable development.

The fragmented "third bloc" or center group, including Erdan, Edelstein, Hendel, and Trooper, faces internal tensions despite ideological proximity. Analysts suggest their struggle resembles a natural selection battle, with unity difficult due to poor relations. If they unite, they could collectively secure six mandates, but personal and political differences remain a barrier.

Opposition parties appear to be strengthening, all polling in double digits, contrasting with the current coalition parties, most of which remain in single digits except Likud. Veteran political commentator Amnon Abramovich questions the feasibility of uniting factions that represent fundamentally different visions for Israel's future. The political landscape remains volatile as parties maneuver for position in the lead-up to the elections.

Overall, the poll reflects a deepening political divide and uncertainty, with key figures like Erdan and Edelstein risking everything on a gamble, Bennett showing signs of recovery, and Netanyahu facing growing challenges from within the right-wing camp.