Small Israeli Parties Could Decide Next Prime Minister Amid Coalition Talks
As public and media attention focuses on major parties and top leaders, smaller Israeli parties operating under the radar may unexpectedly reshape the political landscape and dramatically influence election outcomes if they surpass the electoral threshold. Opposition efforts against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have concentrated on Blue and White, led by Benny Gantz, who recent polls suggest may fail to cross the threshold. Gantz, formerly part of the opposition bloc, refuses to rule out sitting with Netanyahu and advocates ending political boycotts to form a broad unity government excluding political extremes.
Gantz is taking a significant risk in this critical election by negotiating alliances with small parties that have historically struggled to pass the threshold. He has engaged in intensive talks with former Fire and Rescue Commissioner Dedi Simchi, who lost his son in the October 7 battle in Be'erim, and considered including Yaron Zelekha, a former Treasury comptroller who has long sought political entry but failed to pass the threshold. Currently, Zelekha’s inclusion is on hold, while Gantz and Simchi pressure Yoaz Hendel, leader of the Reservists Party, to join them. The main obstacle is Hendel’s demand for a joint declaration rejecting coalition with current ultra-Orthodox parties, which Simchi opposes, though he is willing to publicly commit to not sitting with Arab parties. Another point of contention involves Simchi’s insistence on not enabling either side to secure a decisive 61st Knesset seat, instead forcing a unity government, a stance Hendel does not require.
Meanwhile, another emerging party linked to former Likud members such as Gilad Erdan, Yuli Edelstein, and Ayelet Shaked is forming, with Erdan recently resigning from the Israel Aerospace Industries board amid ongoing coalition considerations. On the right, former MK Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut party is actively campaigning to cross the threshold, having narrowly missed it by about 23,000 votes in the April 2019 election. Feiglin, who briefly allied with Netanyahu before retiring and now planning a comeback, recently added right-wing activist Michael Ben Ari and signals openness to alliances with Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit, and possibly Noam.
Retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter is also building a political infrastructure but has yet to make significant progress, facing pressure to join forces. Political sources suggest these fragmented parties and their positions in the lower poll tiers could alter the overall election picture. If any surpass the threshold or impose their agenda on others, it could affect the general results and potentially the identity of Israel’s next prime minister. The deadline for submitting candidate lists to the Central Elections Committee is September 3, 47 days before the anticipated October 20 election date, leaving these players limited time to finalize decisions.
