Small Party Alliances Become Key Factor in Israel's 2026 Election Outcome

As Israel approaches the 2026 elections, the focus is shifting to the smaller parties and their ability to cross the electoral threshold, which could determine the overall balance of power. Recent polls show little change in the main blocs, with Netanyahu's coalition holding steady at 51 seats, but the real contest lies in the fragmented center where many small parties struggle to secure enough votes to enter the Knesset.

Gadi Eizenkot's party has gained an additional seat despite facing aggressive attacks, including criticism over his willingness to cooperate with Arab parties. This growth challenges the Likud's strategy of labeling him as left-wing to undermine his support. Meanwhile, other small parties in the center, such as those led by Gilad Erdan and Ofer Winter, remain below the threshold, indirectly benefiting the opposition bloc.

Erdan is expected to announce his candidacy soon, possibly joining forces with former Likud member Gideon Sa'ar, hoping to consolidate votes and avoid harming Eizenkot or Naftali Bennett. However, the crowded political landscape in the center complicates these efforts, as many parties compete for a limited voter base spread thinly across the spectrum.

Naftali Bennett and Benny Gantz's alliance has weakened, dropping from 28 to 15 seats since their union, while Bezalel Smotrich's right-wing party fluctuates around the threshold, vulnerable to competition from other right-wing factions. This instability in Netanyahu's bloc highlights Smotrich's voters as the coalition's weakest link.

Polls also reveal that 19% of coalition voters oppose any deal with ultra-Orthodox parties, signaling potential internal fractures. The small parties collectively represent a desire for change but often undermine each other, preventing a clear shift in power. Analysts emphasize that these elections will be decided by how these small factions align, making the "small alliances" the pivotal question of the campaign.

"Until we know the outcome of these bottom-tier battles, we won't truly understand the election results," said political commentator Amit Segal. The coming weeks will be critical as parties finalize their strategies and alliances ahead of the vote.