Netanyahu Near Collapse but Opposition Still Falls Short in Israel's Fragmented 2026 Election Race

As Israel approaches the 2026 elections, no major political bloc currently holds the 61-seat majority in the Knesset needed to form a government. The election outcome will hinge on voter turnout across different sectors and the final configuration of party lists and alliances, including new parties and those failing to pass the electoral threshold.

In the 2022 elections, a record 417,400 votes (8.76% of valid votes) were lost to parties that did not cross the threshold, mainly Meretz and Balad, resulting in the loss of about 11.5 Knesset seats. This vote wastage primarily weakened the anti-Netanyahu camp, enabling the current coalition to secure a stable 64-seat majority.

Currently, three Arab parties are running separately: Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am surpass the threshold with 10 to 11 seats, while Balad consistently falls short. Poll analyses suggest that a joint Arab list including Balad could increase turnout and boost their bloc to 14-16 seats. However, this would not help the anti-Netanyahu bloc reach a majority of 61 Zionist seats, instead reducing the opposition's strength and forcing reliance on the united Arab list to form a coalition.

A new alliance was recently formed between reserve soldiers' party led by Yoaz Hendel and Hili Trooper, joined by Shira Shapira. Polls show this list barely passes the threshold with 3.3% of votes and four seats. Even with their inclusion, Netanyahu’s coalition would reach only 48 seats, while the Zionist opposition bloc could rise to 58 seats, potentially achieving a majority with this new party’s support.

The data indicates that vote wastage similar to 2022 is likely to recur, complicating any bloc’s path to a majority. The various alliances, including the Hendel-Trooper union, place Israel’s post-election political landscape at a crossroads: either forming a unity government bridging blocs, joining the Zionist opposition bloc to secure a majority, or facing repeated elections due to entrenched divisions.