Israel’s Political Blocs Remain Stable as Party Mergers Shift Seat Distribution

A recent aggregated poll analysis by Globes, compiling data from at least three major Israeli polls, reveals a largely stable political landscape ahead of upcoming elections. The Likud party remains the largest with 24 seats, down by one, while Yisrael Beiteinu holds steady at 21 seats. The newly formed party Beyachad, led by Naftali Bennett, gained one seat to reach 16. Other parties such as Shas (9 seats), United Torah Judaism (8 seats), and Otzma Yehudit (8 seats) show minor fluctuations, with Otzma Yehudit losing one seat.

The coalition bloc totals 54 seats, whereas the opposition bloc holds 66 seats, including 11 seats from Arab parties Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am. This bloc distribution has remained unchanged from the previous week. Among the five polls examined, three indicate the opposition bloc holds between 67 and 69 seats, with Arab parties contributing 9 to 11 seats. The most optimistic and pessimistic polls for the opposition come from Maariv (70 seats) and Channel 14 (57 seats), respectively.

A notable development is the trend of smaller parties merging to surpass the electoral threshold. For example, the alliance of Blue and White (led by Benny Gantz), the Reservists (led by Yoaz Hendel), and retired Brigadier General Dedi Simchi is projected to gain 6 seats, an increase of one seat, drawing support from both coalition and opposition blocs. Another hypothetical merger involving Gilad Erdan, Ayelet Shaked, and Yuli Edelstein, alongside a united Arab party list, could yield 9 seats, mostly at the expense of the opposition.

Despite these shifts, the polls suggest that both political blocs lose seats due to mergers, with the opposition losing more. Political actors remain cautious about revealing their preferred prime minister candidate for the next government formation. The overall picture indicates a continuing tight contest with minor internal shifts rather than dramatic changes in voter support.