Globs Poll of Polls Shows Rare Tie for Second-Largest Bloc

Globes’ latest poll-of-polls, which averages at least three recent surveys from major media outlets, says Likud remains the largest party with an average of 25 seats. The main story is the fight for the second-largest bloc: for the first time this week, Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid alliance and Gadi Eisenkot’s Yeshar list are tied at 19 seats each on average.

Behind them are four parties on 9 seats each, the Democrats led by Yair Golan, Shas, Otzma Yehudit led by Itamar Ben Gvir, and Yisrael Beiteinu. United Torah Judaism has 7, the Joint List, made up of Hadash, Ta’al and Balad, has 6, Ra’am has 5, and Religious Zionism is usually projected at 4. Blue and White, led by Benny Gantz, and the Reservists party led by Yoaz Hendel are below the electoral threshold.

On the bloc level, the coalition is projected at 53 seats and the opposition at 67. But that opposition total includes 11 seats for the Arab parties, meaning the non-Arab opposition reaches only 56 seats and would still struggle to form a government alone.

The article says most polls, including those from Channel 12, Maariv, Israel Hayom and Zman Yisrael, give the opposition 67 to 70 seats. Channel 14 stands out, putting the coalition at 63 seats, though that is down from 66 in that poll less than two months ago.

Globes also tested a scenario in Channel 12 asking what would happen if reserve Brig. Gen. Dadi Shmihi joined Blue and White while all other parties stayed unchanged. The result was a boost for the party, but Blue and White still remained below the threshold at 2.2 percent, with no change to the broader bloc map.