Secret Hamas Channel Warned of 'Explosive Fuses' Months Before Oct. 7

Months before the October 7th Hamas attack, a secret back channel existed between Israel and Hamas, conveying explicit warnings about impending danger. This channel, reportedly codenamed "Sarugim," operated through intermediaries, including the brother of a senior Hamas official, relaying messages directly to and from Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader. A senior Middle Eastern intelligence official confirmed that the UAE had indeed passed a warning to Israel about a potential significant and imminent Hamas operation prior to the attack.

Intelligence documents revealed that on July 23, 2023, two and a half months before the massacre, Brigadier General Amit Saar, head of Military Intelligence Research, sent a stark warning to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the government. This warning highlighted the volatile situation in the Middle East, stating that Israel's enemies perceived its weakness due to the ongoing judicial overhaul. The letters specifically mentioned dangers on multiple fronts, including Gaza, and quoted Hamas leadership's views on the conflict with Israel.

Saar's most severe warning cited the secret channel with Hamas, quoting a message that read, "There are multiple explosive fuses, and the extremists in your government are leading you towards igniting them and igniting the entire region, and you alone will bear responsibility for the consequences." The words "explosive fuses," "the extremists in your government," and "you alone will bear responsibility" were emphasized.

These back channels were reportedly part of Netanyahu's "conflict management" policy, aimed at maintaining quiet for extended periods by dealing with Hamas, rather than the Palestinian Authority. The intention was to secure periods of calm, advance economic understandings, and negotiate prisoner exchanges while Hamas controlled Gaza. Netanyahu believed that maintaining communication, even secretively, reduced the risk of miscalculation and escalation.

Further intelligence from September indicated Sinwar's intent to present something by the end of the month that would cause an "earthquake" and secure the release of all prisoners. This information triggered urgent discussions within the intelligence community, with some viewing it as a precursor to a major attack, possibly linked to Iran providing Hamas with a significant gift, such as the release of Israeli hostage Elizabeth Tsurkov. The UAE's intelligence may have also received this information, potentially through intermediaries like Mohammed Dahlan, a close associate of UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.