Trump Links Iran War End to Midterms, IAEA Refers Iran Nuclear Issue to UN Security Council

U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Wednesday, September 9, that a war with Iran would conclude "immediately" after the U.S. midterm congressional elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. He also predicted that oil prices, which surpassed $100 per barrel amid recent escalations, would begin to fall around the same time. Trump made these remarks to reporters before departing for a Republican Party conference in Dallas, which is part of the election preparations. He accused Iran of attempting to influence the U.S. elections to aid Democrats in regaining control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, suggesting Iran seeks a "weak group of people" that would allow it to obtain nuclear weapons. The president also experienced a minor delay boarding the new Air Force One due to a check of the emergency slide, which he deemed a necessary safety precaution.

Meanwhile, the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) Board of Governors decided for the first time in 20 years to refer Iran's nuclear issue to the UN Security Council. This decision stems from the conclusion that Tehran is violating its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The move, championed by the U.S., UK, France, and Germany, is seen as a diplomatic toughening of the West's stance, although Russia and China, with veto power, are expected to block any practical consequences like new sanctions. Twenty-three of the 35 board members voted in favor, with Russia, China, and Niger opposing.

This referral follows a pattern established on June 12, 2025, prior to the Israeli "People of the Lion" war against Iran, during which the U.S. joined strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The IAEA had already concluded then that Tehran was breaching its commitments, citing traces of uranium found at undeclared sites, which are suspected of being linked to a past military nuclear program. Iran denies such activities, claiming its program was shuttered in 2003, though Israel maintains work continued. Following previous IAEA decisions, Iran restricted cooperation with inspectors, particularly after the June 2025 strikes, denying access to damaged sites.

Tehran's non-cooperation has become a new point of contention. In June of this year, the Board demanded an accounting of Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles. Before the "People of the Lion" war, Iran possessed 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to 60%, close to the 90% threshold for nuclear weapons, enough for at least ten bombs. Concerns remain that Iran may have hidden significant amounts of this material, potentially at the heavily fortified Kirk mountain complex, posing a continued nuclear threat despite the war's objective to eliminate it. Iran has threatened retaliation for the IAEA's decision, with its representative accusing Western nations of fabricating the issue. Iran's mission to the IAEA called the decision political and blamed the U.S. and Israel for the situation.