Israel's Next Defense Minister: A Look at Potential Candidates and Their Security Doctrines

As Israel's election cycle focuses on the next prime minister, a parallel and potentially equally critical contest is underway for the position of defense minister. The role, especially after the October 7th attacks and amid deep strain on the IDF and reserves, will extend beyond approving operations and managing budgets. The next minister must lead the rebuilding of military strength, address the Iranian threat, shape the future of Gaza, manage the West Bank situation, navigate relations with the United States, and tackle the highly contentious issue of ultra-Orthodox conscription.

The identity of the defense minister will depend on the composition of the next government. Several prominent figures are being discussed, representing distinct security philosophies. These include retired Brigadier General Ofir Winter, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, and former Deputy IDF Chief of Staff Yair Golan. Their differing approaches revolve around how Israel should operate post-October 7th: whether to pursue decisive victory and sovereignty, fundamentally alter regional equations, or combine military strength with political separation and international alliances.

Ofir Winter, if a right-wing government is formed, advocates for a proactive, offensive military focused on eliminating threats rather than temporary deterrence. He opposes territorial concessions in the West Bank, supports settlement expansion and Israeli sovereignty, and views ultra-Orthodox conscription as essential for rebuilding the army, proposing tailored frameworks for recruitment. Naftali Bennett, if he leads the next government, intends to directly shape security policy, envisioning Israel as a "gorilla in the jungle" that initiates action rather than passively defending. He calls for direct action against Iran, designates Qatar as an enemy state, and seeks a closer alliance with Egypt regarding Gaza. Bennett also proposes an independent intelligence assessment unit reporting directly to the prime minister.

Gadi Eisenkot, a potential candidate in a centrist or opposition-led government, combines significant military force with strategic caution. He previously supported the "Dahiya Doctrine" of overwhelming force against Hezbollah but believes military power must serve strategic goals. Eisenkot warns against a process leading to a bi-national state and favors strategic separation from the Palestinians, while maintaining IDF operational freedom and opposing unilateral annexation due to its potential damage to international relations.

Yair Golan, also vying for the defense portfolio, calls for establishing a moderate Palestinian entity as an alternative to Hamas and deploying a new international force in southern Lebanon. He proposes a plan for separation from the Palestinians, involving a determined fight against both Palestinian and Jewish terrorism, the evacuation of illegal outposts, and border demarcation. He aims to build a moderate regional axis and strengthen the IDF's ground forces.

Regardless of who takes the helm, the issue of ultra-Orthodox conscription will be a major internal challenge. Winter proposes universal service with accommodations, Bennett demands significant participation and links it to economic benefits, and Eisenkot insists on substantial ultra-Orthodox recruitment as a condition for a new service law, prioritizing the IDF's needs.