New Party Emerges, Complicating Israeli Election Bloc Math

A new political party formed by Yoaz Hendel and Professor Yaron Zelicha is projected to pass Israel's electoral threshold, potentially altering the landscape of upcoming elections. According to a poll broadcast by Kan News, the "Union" party would garner 4 seats, creating a new bloc that complicates the formation of a government for either major political camp.

If Hendel and Zelicha's party enters the Knesset, the bloc supporting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would stand at 52 seats, just one seat ahead of the opposing bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot, which drops from 55 seats in the previous poll to 51. Netanyahu's bloc maintains its size despite a continued decline in the Likud party's support, which lost another seat this week, now standing at 20 seats. With Hendel and Zelicha's party included, Netanyahu's bloc would reach 56 seats, still five seats short of the 61 needed to form a government.

The Eisenkot bloc, with Hendel and Zelicha, would total 55 seats and would require the support of the Ra'am party to exceed 61 seats. Similar to Likud, Eisenkot's party and Naftali Bennett's "Achva" party also lost a seat, now holding 23 and 13 seats respectively. Other parties like Democrats, Otzma Yehudit, United Torah Judaism, and the Joint List also saw a decrease in projected seats.

Ra'am and Religious Zionism, which recently formed a technical bloc with Moshe Feiglin's Zehut party, both gained a seat, reaching six seats each. In head-to-head matchups for prime minister, Netanyahu leads Bennett with 37% to 32%, but Eisenkot maintains a consistent lead over Netanyahu, with 38% preferring him for the role compared to Netanyahu's 35%. Eisenkot also significantly leads Bennett, with 36% favoring Eisenkot versus 17% for Bennett.

The poll also surveyed public opinion on Prime Minister Netanyahu's actions on the morning of October 7th, following a report that he spoke with the IDF Chief of Staff three hours after the Hamas attack. 62% of respondents rated Netanyahu's conduct that morning as "not good," while 26% considered it "good." The survey was conducted by Kantar on September 6, 2026, with 551 respondents aged 18 and above, using an online sample that included the Arab sector. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.2%.