A new memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, published by Bloomberg and presented as a way to end the war, reportedly grants Tehran extraordinary economic concessions in five stages. According to the text, some benefits would begin immediately, some during negotiations, and the broadest only if a final deal is signed. Analyst Avner Wilen, a former senior Israeli security official and Iran expert, called the package a “game changer” and said, “The Iranian regime is in severe economic trouble. It understands it has no way to provide electricity, water and food to the population.” He added that the incentives are “unprecedented” and could allow the regime to survive indefinitely.
Under the first phase, Washington would lift the naval blockade imposed by President Donald Trump on April 13 and restore full maritime traffic within 30 days. It would also remove sanctions on Iran’s oil industry and related services. The article says the initial package is expected to be signed on Friday in Switzerland. The blockade had effectively blocked access to Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and prevented oil exports, which Trump said were costing Iran about $500 million a day. Wilen said the blockade and sanctions are complementary because one allows oil sales and the other allows physical exports, noting that Iran exports about 2 million barrels a day and would quickly regain billions of dollars in revenue.
A second, interim concession would free frozen Iranian assets around the world if Tehran meets negotiation targets. Those assets, held in countries including the United States, the United Arab Emirates and China, are valued at about $100 billion, with some reports saying Iran wants access to about $24 billion of them. The money remains inaccessible today but could be crucial for economic recovery.
If a final accord is reached, the memorandum reportedly requires the United States to lift all sanctions on Iran, including secondary sanctions on foreign entities that work with Tehran, a step broader than the 2015 nuclear deal. It would also create a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran, though U.S. officials have said Washington will not contribute directly. Wilen said raising the money will be difficult, but argued the fund could still indirectly help rebuild military infrastructure by freeing other domestic resources. He said the overall package would return Iran to, or possibly beyond, its prewar economic position.
