Draft U.S.-Iran Deal Promises Massive Economic Relief for Tehran

A leaked memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, intended to end the war, lays out sweeping economic concessions for Tehran. The text, published by Bloomberg, contains five economic clauses that would be implemented immediately, during negotiations, or only if a final agreement is signed. Avner Wylan, a former senior Israeli security official and Iran expert, called the package a “game changer” and said, “The Iranian regime is in severe economic trouble. It understands it has no way to provide electricity, water and food to the population.” He added that the offers are “unprecedented” and could let the regime survive indefinitely.

Under the first stage, Washington would lift the naval blockade that Trump announced on April 13 and restore full maritime traffic within 30 days. The United States would also remove sanctions on Iran’s oil industry and related services. According to the published draft, these benefits would begin immediately after the memorandum is signed, which is expected on Friday in Switzerland. Wylan said the two steps work together, because sanctions relief would let Iran sell oil commercially while the blockade would let it export it. He estimated Iran exports about 2 million barrels a day, meaning billions of dollars could start flowing back into the economy almost at once.

The second stage would free Iranian frozen assets abroad, but only if Tehran meets negotiation benchmarks. The assets, held in countries including the United States, the United Arab Emirates and China, are estimated at about $100 billion. Reports have said Iran has sought access to about $24 billion of that total. The money could be crucial for reconstruction, but Iran currently cannot use it.

If a final deal is reached, the United States would lift all sanctions on Iran, including secondary sanctions on foreign entities that do business with it, and create a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran. The draft says all U.S. sanctions would be removed, a broader rollback than the 2015 nuclear deal. Wylan said this would “allow Iran to develop an economy like all economies,” and noted that even if the fund does not directly finance military infrastructure, it could free other money for that purpose. U.S. officials have already said the reconstruction fund would not be financed by American money.