Iranian Draft Deal Seen as a Major Win for Tehran and a Risk for Israel

In a June 17 analysis published by N12, Iranian nuclear expert Avner Wilen argued that the emerging U.S.-Iran framework is a very bad deal that gives Tehran major concessions up front while postponing the key nuclear questions. He said the Trump administration is effectively telling the region that it is done fighting, and that Israel, which is not a party to the agreement, is being pulled into a ceasefire arrangement anyway.

According to the article, the immediate terms would stop fighting between the United States and Iran and, by extension, their partners. The deal would open the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, provide Iran with sanctions relief on oil and fuel exports, and release frozen Iranian funds held in various countries, a total estimated at more than $100 billion. Wilen said this would give Iran an economic lifeline worth billions each month while the core issues, uranium, centrifuges and enrichment sites, are left for a later phase.

The draft, he wrote, contains striking omissions. It does not spell out clear monitoring tools, a snapback mechanism for restoring sanctions, or detailed requirements for accounting for every bit of enriched material and every centrifuge, unlike the 2015 nuclear accord. He also said there is no mention of ballistic missiles, UAVs or proxy forces, and the final deal is reportedly expected to bar new issues from being added.

Wilen said the agreement would be not only a nuclear deal but also a rehabilitation plan for Iran’s regional war machine, with a proposed $300 billion reconstruction fund and no real constraints on missiles or proxies. He warned that even if Iran signs, it may hide material and capability for a covert nuclear path, and if no final deal is reached, Washington may lack the will to reimpose sanctions or risk renewed escalation.