Draft U.S.-Iran Deal Could Leave Israel Facing a Strategic Setback

An Iranian report on a draft understandings memo between the United States and Iran paints a troubling picture for Israel if the leaked terms are accurate. Based on a report by Amihaï Stein, the Iranian news agency Mehr cited a source close to Iran’s negotiating team, saying the draft would include an immediate, permanent ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, and a U.S. pledge not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs.

The reported draft would also lift the naval blockade within 30 days, pull U.S. forces away from areas near Iran, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz under arrangements set by Tehran. In parallel, sanctions on Iranian oil and petrochemical exports would be suspended, and Iran would regain access to its financial assets. The biggest economic element is the release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds, with about $12 billion to be unlocked before talks even begin on a final nuclear deal.

In return, Iran would have 60 days to negotiate a permanent nuclear agreement. But according to the Iranian list, Tehran’s missile program and its support for what it calls the “resistance groups,” including Hezbollah, the Houthis, and pro-Iranian militias in the region, would be excluded from the talks. That would let Iran keep its missiles, keep funding its proxies, and channel money into rebuilding military infrastructure damaged in the war.

The Lebanon clause is also seen as highly worrisome because a permanent ceasefire there, without an explicit requirement to disarm Hezbollah, could give the group time, money, and calm to regroup. The draft would further be submitted for approval by the UN Security Council, which could make future Israeli action against Iran harder if Tehran violates the deal. However, there is no confirmation that Washington has accepted all of the reported terms, and the Iranian side itself says the draft still awaits review and approval in Tehran.