AI Era Won't Diminish Value of Reading, Math Skills, Study Finds

New research from the Taub Center indicates that fundamental skills like reading, mathematics, and problem-solving will remain crucial in the job market, potentially becoming even more valuable with the rise of artificial intelligence. The study, conducted by Michael Dabai, Professor Gil Epstein, and Professor Avi Weiss, analyzed data from the OECD's 2022-2023 PIAAC survey to examine the link between workers' basic skills and their salaries, and how AI expansion might affect demand for these competencies.

The researchers found that employees in professions susceptible to AI automation, such as software developers, accountants, designers, financial advisors, lawyers, and clerks, generally possess higher levels of reading, math, and problem-solving skills, which correlates with higher earnings. A key finding is that the economic return on these skills is similar for both AI-exposed and non-exposed professions, suggesting employers will continue to reward strong reading, calculation, and independent thinking abilities, regardless of AI tool usage.

However, the study warns that the gap between high-skilled and low-skilled workers is unlikely to narrow and may even widen in AI-exposed fields. Professor Weiss noted, "The fear of losing basic skills in the era of social media and screens is real and worrying. It seems many young people feel AI makes it unnecessary to invest in fundamental skills, but in reality, the opposite is true: the ability to work with and alongside AI will require the next generation to have even more advanced skills than today." He stressed the importance of this recognition for government bodies responsible for education and for parents.

The research also explored various AI-driven worker replacement scenarios. In an extreme case where most or all exposed workers are replaced with negligible productivity gains, average salaries in these professions could drop by 5% to 9%. If only up to a quarter of workers are replaced without productivity improvements, salary decreases would be in the single digits. A more probable scenario, where AI not only replaces workers but also enhances efficiency, could boost productivity by 3.5% to 9% and save significantly on labor costs. While this productivity increase might offset salary declines nationally, the benefits could accrue to employers rather than employees. Nevertheless, it could also create new jobs and increase demand for highly skilled workers.

"The data indicates that even in the AI era, the labor market will continue to reward basic skills in reading, math, and problem-solving, perhaps even more than today," stated researcher Dabai. "Workers seeking to improve their earning potential should invest in these skills, and the state should facilitate this." This recommendation is particularly relevant given Israel's relatively low level of these basic skills compared to other developed nations.

The study also highlights a significant issue for Israel: its basic skill levels lag considerably behind other developed countries, ranking 25th to 27th out of 31 nations surveyed. This gap is pronounced among the Arab and Haredi populations but also exists among the non-Haredi Jewish population. This is notable given Israel's high rate of higher education attainment, suggesting a disconnect between academic degrees and fundamental skill proficiency. The researchers conclude that AI expansion doesn't reduce the need for basic skills; rather, it may increase their importance for operating AI tools effectively and critically evaluating their outputs.

"Basic skills are a prerequisite for using technology, not a replacement for it," the researchers emphasized. They urge the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Labor to invest in strengthening reading, mathematical thinking, and problem-solving skills, alongside integrating AI tools in education and vocational training. They also caution against skill erosion due to daily technology use and stress the need to maintain independent task execution capabilities. Professor Epstein added, "AI can read, calculate, and solve problems for us, but those who haven't acquired these skills themselves won't know how to operate it or identify its errors. Basic skills are a condition for using technology, not a substitute, and precisely because the machine does them easily, we must not abandon them."