Israel Security Agencies Detect Growing Hamas Readiness for Conflict

Israeli intelligence and Shin Bet security services have identified an increasing willingness within Hamas to engage in friction with Israel, a shift not seen since the initial phase of the Trump administration's plan to end the fighting began nearly a year ago. For months, Hamas had avoided direct confrontation, prioritizing internal organization and reconstruction within Gaza, even in response to Israeli strikes and the elimination of senior operatives.

This change in approach is evidenced by the recent resumption of incendiary balloon launches from Gaza into Israeli territory. Security officials attribute this shift to a severe governance crisis within Hamas in Gaza, which has reportedly weakened the organization's ability to maintain control and deter internal dissent. Intelligence assessments indicate a significant increase in clashes between Hamas clans, with eight activists killed in recent internal conflicts.

During a recent assessment, intelligence and Shin Bet officials informed the political echelon that Hamas is facing a "governance problem" in Gaza, and its "deterrence capability has been damaged." They noted an "unusual number of clashes between internal Hamas clans." The security establishment is reportedly considering how to exploit this internal weakness to significantly harm Hamas within the Strip.

In response to these findings, Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that the IDF faces no limitations in using force to remove threats and emphasized the need to "implement a policy of forceful enforcement on the matter." The key questions now are whether Hamas will escalate its actions against Israel to increase friction, and whether Israel will leverage Hamas's internal struggles to strike at the organization within Gaza.