Ofer Winter’s New Party Draws Votes Mainly from Likud, Threatening Right-Wing Bloc Unity

Retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter’s entry into Israeli politics is causing significant shifts in the right-wing electoral landscape ahead of the 2026 elections. Recent polls show Winter’s new party securing four mandates even before its official launch, with projections suggesting potential growth to six seats. Analysis of voter sources reveals that 60% of Winter’s support comes directly from coalition parties, primarily the Likud, while the remaining 40% stems from undecided voters and those seeking alternatives.

Specifically, 30% of Winter’s voters defect from Likud, 15% from the Religious Zionist Party led by Bezalel Smotrich, and another 15% from Otzma Yehudit headed by Itamar Ben-Gvir. The remaining 25% come from voters previously unaligned with any party, and 15% are undecided voters attracted to Winter’s new list. This dynamic presents a dilemma for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: Winter’s party brings new voters into the right-wing camp but simultaneously cannibalizes votes from existing right-wing parties, notably pushing Smotrich’s party toward falling below the electoral threshold.

In response, Netanyahu is pressing for right-wing unifications to prevent vote splitting that could cost critical mandates. Efforts include proposed mergers between Winter and Smotrich, and between Moshe Feiglin and Ben-Gvir, with Netanyahu offering reserved high-ranking spots on the Likud list as incentives. However, Winter has resisted these overtures, declining a direct slot in Likud and avoiding communications with Netanyahu’s office, citing opposition to aligning with a party involved in the October 7 failures.

Despite Winter’s fluctuating poll numbers, Likud recognizes that integrating his party into the right-wing bloc will require substantial negotiation before candidate lists are finalized. Dimona Mayor Benny Biton revealed that Winter was initially offered a reserved spot on the Likud list but chose to sever ties and ignore further contact attempts. Biton downplayed concerns, suggesting Netanyahu is not worried and expects cooperation between the two in forming a government based on shared ideology after the elections.