Mohammed Dahlan Emerges as Key Figure Bridging Hamas and Arab States Amid Palestinian Political Shifts

In recent weeks, Mohammed Dahlan has become a central figure in discussions about the future of the Gaza Strip due to his growing role connecting Hamas, Egypt, Gulf states, and the U.S. administration. Dahlan, officially still a member of the PLO, has forged ties with Hamas, lending the group political legitimacy and potentially positioning it as a contender in upcoming Palestinian elections amid the Palestinian Authority's (PA) current crisis. The PA leadership was surprised and disappointed by the recent meeting in Egypt between U.S. envoy Jared Kushner, Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya, and Dahlan, which signals a shift in regional dynamics.

Dahlan, long affiliated with the United Arab Emirates and possibly part of its rivalry with Qatar over Gaza influence, lacks a strong rival within the PA, where aging President Mahmoud Abbas and imprisoned Marwan Barghouti offer no clear alternative. Hamas has publicly confirmed ongoing talks with Dahlan's faction, including discussions about the planned Palestinian elections in late November and the possibility of forming a "broad national alliance" involving Hamas, Dahlan's stream, other factions, and independents. This cooperation could mark Hamas's gradual reintegration into the Palestinian political system beyond its isolated governance of Gaza.

Hamas official Hossam Badran acknowledged meetings with the Democratic-Reformist current of Fatah, some attended by Dahlan, and mentioned plans for a wide electoral framework. For Dahlan, this represents a chance to re-enter Palestinian politics without going through the PA in Ramallah, while Hamas gains a channel to Arab and Western actors it struggles to engage directly.

The rapprochement coincides with intensified U.S. efforts to advance the next phase of the Trump administration's Gaza peace plan. Hamas agreed to a roadmap including Israeli withdrawal, expanded aid, and the establishment of a national committee for Gaza's management and reconstruction. Dahlan announced he received a message from Kushner about an agreement with Israel to halt attacks on Gaza, urging Palestinian factions to honor commitments and avoid provocations.

Dahlan's unique position, maintaining contacts with Hamas and American officials, illustrates his emerging role at the nexus of key regional players. Meanwhile, the PA watches these developments with concern, fearing a new political model where Hamas and Dahlan form an alternative to the existing PLO and PA structures. A senior PA official told ynet that donor countries favor reforms and elections but view the Hamas-Dahlan rapprochement positively. The official warned that with the PA's deepening economic crisis and lack of tax revenues, Israel might face the rise of a "Hamastan" led by Dahlan, rather than the "Fatahstan" it rejected, reflecting a significant shift in the Palestinian political balance.