Mohammed Dahlan Reemerges as Key Player in Gaza Ceasefire Talks Amid Ongoing Conflict
Since the outbreak of the war, Mohammed Dahlan, also known as Abu Fadi, has frequently been mentioned as a potential alternative to Hamas leadership in Gaza. This week marked his most prominent media presence since October 7, following a period of relative quiet. The renewed attention came after the announcement of an agreement to implement the second phase of a ceasefire plan in Gaza, known as the 15-point program, developed under the auspices of the Peace Council. Dahlan is positioning himself as a central figure in this initiative.
According to senior figures in Dahlan's camp, called the "Democratic Reform Stream," he played a pivotal role in persuading Hamas leaders to accept the 15-point plan, which includes a general agreement on Hamas disarming and establishing a technocratic government. Dahlan reportedly reached an understanding with Jared Kushner about a Trump declaration to promote a ceasefire, which he announced early last Sunday. However, Israeli military strikes continued, and after a pressured visit by Nikolay Mladenov, the UN envoy for Gaza, attacks ceased only when the Peace Council declared no Israeli withdrawal from the expanded "yellow line" without Hamas fully disarming.
Dahlan, who speaks Hebrew and was once head of the Palestinian Preventive Security in Gaza during the Oslo era, is seen as a viable alternative to both Hamas and Mahmoud Abbas. Despite being expelled by Abbas in 2011 and considered an enemy by the Palestinian Authority, Dahlan maintains significant influence in Gaza, where he was born, and enjoys strong ties with the UAE royal family, where he currently resides. His media outlets, including Cairo-based "Kofiya" and "Al-Ghad," have recently highlighted his role in advancing the ceasefire plan, featuring interviews with his supporters and Gaza residents expressing hope in his leadership.
Dahlan's camp claims he is essential to the recent diplomatic breakthroughs, with spokespeople emphasizing his deep local knowledge and connections across Palestinian factions. However, Dahlan faced criticism for prematurely declaring an end to Israeli strikes, which continued despite his statements. His sharp tweet accusing Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu of undermining the ceasefire efforts preceded a slowdown in attacks.
Within Gaza, Dahlan is strengthening his influence by increasing civilian aid efforts through the Emirati-funded "Noble Knight" foundation, deepening ties with local clan leaders, and maintaining close relations with the technocratic government based in Cairo. He also seeks to prevent the Palestinian Authority from regaining control in Gaza, portraying himself as the true power in the region. Polls suggest Dahlan enjoys significant popularity in Gaza, surpassing both Abbas and Hamas candidates.
Despite the agreement, Hamas remains resistant to full and immediate disarmament, proposing partial and gradual measures instead. Doubts persist about Hamas's willingness to cede full civilian authority to the technocratic government, as it likely intends to retain military influence behind the scenes, similar to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The complex Gaza situation is heavily influenced by former U.S. President Donald Trump, whose frustration with the Iran conflict and Netanyahu's policies has led to more cautious U.S. support for Israeli military freedom in Gaza. International pressure, including from the U.S., Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar, is mounting on Israel to limit strikes and allow the technocratic government to operate. Recent Israeli military orders require personal approval from the Chief of Staff for any targeted killings in Gaza, signaling a possible reduction in operational freedom.
The renewed ceasefire talks and Dahlan's involvement come at a sensitive time ahead of critical Israeli elections, raising concerns about potential friction between Jerusalem and Washington. Dahlan's role could also deepen UAE involvement in Gaza, a strategic goal for Netanyahu to counter Qatar's influence. Experts stress the need for Israeli leadership to engage transparently with the public, especially residents near Gaza, replacing aggressive rhetoric with pragmatic policies based on lessons from the October 7 events. Dahlan's reemergence as a key figure in Gaza's future highlights the intricate interplay of local, regional, and international actors shaping the conflict's trajectory.
