US Leads Iran Conflict While Israel Stays on Sidelines Under Trump’s Direction

Four months after Israel’s intense 40-day "Roaring Lion" operation against Iran, a fragile ceasefire remains repeatedly violated amid ongoing US-Iran tensions. Recently, the US military conducted nearly two weeks of consecutive strikes on Iranian military bases and infrastructure, while Israel refrained from participating. This Israeli restraint is not solely a Jerusalem decision but stems from explicit US requests to avoid involvement unless directly attacked, effectively placing Israel’s actions under former President Donald Trump’s control.

Iran continues to launch missiles and drones at US bases and regional allies, threatening escalation, while the US enforces a blockade on Iranian ports and targets the Revolutionary Guards to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz. Despite staying out of the current strikes, Israel remains a direct Iranian target and maintains heightened alertness for potential spillover. Experts note that Israel’s security doctrine has been challenged by its dependence on US decisions, limiting its independent operational freedom and weakening its regional deterrence.

Trump’s unpredictable approach complicates Israeli military planning. He has publicly threatened massive attacks on Iran, only to cancel them abruptly, citing diplomatic developments and regional pressures, including from Israel itself. Trump’s public statements portraying Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as following his orders reinforce perceptions that Washington dictates Israeli military moves, undermining Israel’s strategic autonomy.

Israeli officials argue that previous operations significantly degraded Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, allowing the US to bear the brunt of ongoing military and economic pressure. Netanyahu emphasizes that Israel’s restraint prevents exposing its home front to Iranian missile attacks while supporting US-led efforts. However, Israel’s sidelined role risks marginalizing its influence over the conflict’s outcome, especially as regional actors like Saudi Arabia push for de-escalation.

While Israel retains military capabilities to strike Iran independently, political and strategic constraints tied to US support and coordination limit such options. The current reality leaves Israel watching as the US leads strikes, negotiates with Tehran, and decides when to halt hostilities. The critical question remains whether Israel will act contrary to US wishes if Iran crosses red lines again, as the evolving dynamic reshapes regional security calculations.