Israel Awaits US Lead Before Joining Potential New Conflict With Iran

Despite recent briefings suggesting rising tensions, Israel is not rushing to initiate a new military campaign against Iran. Israeli leadership anticipates an escalation if a US-Iran agreement fails, but prefers to join only if prompted by the United States or in response to Iranian aggression. Officials estimate a critical window between the end of the World Cup and September for US President Donald Trump to exert pressure on Iran and secure a deal. Should diplomacy fail, US military actions against Iran are expected to increase, raising the prospect of Israeli involvement.

Trump recently warned on his social media platform that Iran will face severe consequences for any attacks killing American soldiers, following the deaths of US troops in Jordan and Iraq linked to Iranian-backed assaults. Israeli security sources confirm that while Israel is not initiating new operations, it is prepared to act if requested by the US or if Iran directly threatens Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are ready for various scenarios, including preemptive strikes, with full coordination with US Central Command.

Israeli officials believe the previous round of conflict ended before all Iranian targets were neutralized, particularly in missile, nuclear, command, and infrastructure sectors. They note that US-imposed restrictions limited damage to civilian infrastructure during past strikes. Some in Israel view Iran as currently weakened by military and economic pressures and internal unrest, potentially creating a strategic opportunity. Additionally, Iran's repeated attacks on Gulf states might foster a new regional coalition against Tehran, though US officials prefer Israel to avoid a frontline role to maintain Arab support.

Within Israel, there is no consensus on launching another campaign. Some senior figures caution against immediate action, questioning the strategic gains and warning of potential costs such as economic disruption, tourism decline, and renewed drone attacks. There is also concern that escalation could draw Hezbollah into northern Israel, complicating regional stability efforts.

Political considerations exist, with speculation that a military success against Iran could bolster Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of elections, though official statements deny this influences decisions. Ultimately, the decision to engage rests with Trump, described by Israeli officials as the "final arbiter." Israel will join if Trump desires or if Iran provokes, but otherwise will remain cautious. The IDF is preparing targets and the security establishment is monitoring developments, awaiting Washington's lead on when and how to act.