Iranian Leadership Debates Expanding Military Strikes to Include Israel Amid Regional Tensions

A sharp debate is ongoing within Iran's top leadership about whether to expand military strikes to include Israel or continue focusing on Jordan and Gulf states. The dispute stems from a leadership crisis in Tehran, with no clear figure able to decisively set strategic direction. The absence of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not appeared publicly or responded promptly to regional developments, limits direct influence on decision-making. The recent assassination of Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and a key mediator between hardliners and moderates, has further deepened the crisis. Larijani was known for balancing factions within Iran's political and military establishment, including extreme Revolutionary Guard elements opposed to any compromise with the US.

Meanwhile, the US continues targeting Revolutionary Guard military assets and is preparing for possible escalation, sending various aircraft, including refueling planes, to Israel as part of military readiness. Iranian security officials believe that including Israel in the strike circle could provoke a severe response and significantly harm the regime. However, hardline factions push to broaden the campaign and not exclude Israel from the range of attacks. The recent launch of four ballistic missiles from Iran toward Aqaba, Jordan, marked the closest point yet to direct strikes against Israel. The Israeli Air Force launched two Iron Dome interceptors fearing debris might fall on Israeli territory. Following the incident, IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir issued a warning to Iran, emphasizing that the Israeli military is prepared for renewed fighting if Israeli civilian areas are hit.