Iranian Leadership Divided Over War Strategy Amid Escalating US Tensions
As attacks against US bases and allies escalate in the Persian Gulf and Middle East, Iran's leaders publicly present a united front, determined to endure a prolonged conflict. However, deep divisions exist within Tehran's ruling elite regarding how to end the war. On one side are hardline ideologues from the "Paydari" movement, who reject any negotiations with the US, demand total military victory, and call for stricter religious-social enforcement. Opposing them is a moderate camp aligned with President Ebrahim Raisi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, viewing military pressure as a means to extract concessions at the negotiating table. This camp is influenced by the heavy economic toll of the war and recognizes the need for flexibility amid societal changes in Iran.
The debate intensified after US President Donald Trump announced the cancellation of a planned strike on Iran. The leadership is also unsettled by the uncertain status of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, reportedly wounded in the February 28 attack that killed his father, Ali Khamenei. Both factions claim his support. In April, a ceasefire deal with the US gained strong backing from Iran's Supreme National Security Council, with 12 of 13 members approving, including Revolutionary Guards and military figures. Hardliner Saeed Jalili was the sole dissenter. The ceasefire later collapsed, leading to renewed hostilities and frustration in Tehran over unmet US commitments.
The funeral of Ali Khamenei became a show of strength for the hardliners, with crowds calling for revenge against the US and Israel and openly supporting Jalili, while moderates like Raisi faced hostility. Hardliners leveraged nighttime rallies and state TV to fuel opposition to negotiations, portraying Iran as on the path to total victory and condemning compromise. State TV even cut off speeches by Raisi and Ghalibaf, prompting accusations from the moderates that the broadcaster was dividing the country during wartime.
Experts note that although Jalili's supporters are a minority, they wield significant influence through wealth, bureaucratic placements, and ties to the Revolutionary Guards. The pragmatic camp argues that national unity requires addressing public frustration over economic hardship, political repression, and social issues. Iran's currency continues to plummet amid rising inflation and unemployment. A final deal with the US could bring massive benefits by lifting sanctions and restoring billions in assets. Over 250 former lawmakers, clerics, academics, and public figures signed a July petition opposing the war, warning of its high cost and expressing the Iranian people's desire for peace and dignity.
Ultimately, both camps are vying for power and influence in the uncertain "post-war" era, complicated by the dramatic leadership change. While some fear Mojtaba Khamenei may be more hardline than his father, others see potential for moderate reform under his rule.
