Israel Stays Out of US-Iran Conflict for Now Amid Regional Tensions

For months, it appeared Israel was pushing the United States to take a tougher stance against Iran, believing only direct American involvement could significantly damage Tehran's strategic infrastructure. However, the current reality is that the US is leading the campaign against Iran, while Israel remains on the sidelines, at least for now.

Israeli and American officials alike assess that Israel’s entry into the conflict at this stage is unlikely. The main reasons are political and strategic: Gulf states fear that Israeli involvement would complicate their internal politics and regional relations, preferring the confrontation to remain between the US and Iran. Israel itself sees no immediate benefit in joining the fighting as long as the US-Iran exchanges remain limited and symbolic, allowing Jerusalem to benefit from American pressure without direct costs.

Washington is also cautious, aiming to avoid a wider regional escalation. Including Israel could shift the conflict’s nature, hinder international support, and allow Iran to frame the war as a broader Muslim world confrontation. So far, US strikes on Iran’s infrastructure have been relatively limited, avoiding critical targets like oil export facilities to prevent economic collapse or energy market shocks.

Iran portrays its resilience as a political victory, maintaining deterrence while avoiding escalation with certain Gulf countries. Tehran also recognizes Israel’s potential for a full-scale response if provoked. Israel is preparing for a possible immediate resumption of hostilities, with Defense Minister Israel Katz referring to a "third Iran war." Israeli officials say they are closely monitoring US actions, which currently lead the campaign.

A scenario where Israel joins the conflict could arise if Iran significantly escalates attacks or targets Israel directly, or if the US requires Israeli capabilities for specific operations. Meanwhile, Israel is preparing defensively and offensively for potential Iranian strikes. All major players, US, Israel, Gulf states, and Iran, prefer to keep Israel out of the conflict for now, a rare alignment of interests. However, the volatile Middle East means a single unexpected event could rapidly change the situation.

Additional context includes the cancellation of a planned visit by US Defense Secretary Mark Esper to Israel, initially intended to ease Israeli concerns over a US-Turkey F-35 deal. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to visit Washington, though no date is set, possibly delayed to avoid perceptions of Israeli pressure on the US to escalate the conflict. Israel’s preparations anticipate that any renewed war might only fully unfold after the US midterm elections in November.