Iran and Oman Near Agreement to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Amid US Pressure

Recent reports indicate that Iran and Oman are close to announcing an agreement on the reopening and management of the Strait of Hormuz, possibly as soon as Tuesday evening. The dispute over control of this vital oil transit route was a key factor in the collapse of a June memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US. While details remain unclear, the New York Times reported that unlike previous rejected proposals, the new deal may effectively solidify Iran's control over the strait, allowing it to charge fees under the guise of "service charges" rather than transit tolls. These fees would cover environmental and security costs and be split equally between Iran and Oman.

The negotiations come amid repeated threats from US President Donald Trump to resume military action against Iran, though he appears to prefer a diplomatic resolution. Bloomberg reported that Trump is pressing Iran to finalize the deal quickly or face devastating airstrikes. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed cautious optimism about progress, noting ongoing talks and the potential for an agreement soon. Qatar is also involved in the negotiations, describing the talks as "very advanced" and aiming for a short-term solution to resume diplomatic engagement.

The Strait of Hormuz normally handles about one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments. Since the outbreak of conflict in late February, Iran has intermittently attacked vessels in the strait, causing oil price spikes and increasing pressure on the US administration ahead of the November midterm elections. Iran insists on asserting ownership over the strait and demands payments from ships passing through, a stance that led to the breakdown of the June agreement. The new arrangement reportedly involves ships entering the Persian Gulf using the northern route near Iran and those exiting via the southern route near Oman. Iran would maintain oversight and influence over the exit route, though Oman would issue exit approvals.

US officials warn that allowing Iran to enforce control and collect fees could set a dangerous global precedent for international waterways. The agreement is also linked to the potential lifting of US sanctions on Iranian ports, which the US might block if it perceives the deal as legitimizing Iranian dominance. Additionally, Iran is reportedly considering allowing European countries to assist in clearing mines from the strait, a shift from its previous firm opposition.

If finalized, the deal would mark a significant Iranian diplomatic and strategic gain, restoring partial navigation freedom in the strait while preserving Tehran's leverage in the region.