Israel Election Polls Show Likud Leading, Opposition Struggles to Secure Majority
As Israel approaches elections in under 90 days, polls show Likud leading but the opposition struggling to secure a majority, with undecided voters playing a crucial role. The opposition bloc excluding Arab parties averages 56 seats, while Arab parties hold 10 seats. Polls vary on smaller parties and the distribution of undecided voters, leaving the final outcome uncertain.
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- Likud leads with 25 seats; Yisrael Beytenu follows with 22 seats under Eisenkot.
- Opposition without Arab parties averages 56 seats, lacking a majority in most polls.
- Arab parties collectively hold 10 seats, influencing coalition dynamics.
- New party by Hendel and Tropper crosses threshold in some polls but not all.
- Undecided voters comprise 10-15%, potentially shifting about 20 seats.
- Polls diverge on Hadash-Ta'al and Zionist Home party seat counts.
With less than 90 days until Israel's upcoming elections, the latest aggregated polls reveal a complex and divided political landscape. Likud leads with 25 seats, followed by Yisrael Beytenu under Gadi Eisenkot with 22 seats, while Yamina, led by Naftali Bennett, declines to 12 seats. Other parties maintain steady numbers: the Democratic Camp at 10 seats; Shas, United Torah Judaism, and Otzma Yehudit each at 8; Hadash-Ta'al, Ra'am, and Religious Zionism each at 5 seats. The new party formed by Yoaz Hendel and Hili Tropper crosses the electoral threshold in most polls, but Blue and White, led by Benny Gantz, remains below it.
The opposition bloc excluding Arab parties averages 56 seats, insufficient for a majority, while Arab parties collectively hold 10 seats. Only the Maariv poll grants the opposition without Arab parties a majority of 61 seats, also giving Bennett's party its highest seat count. Most polls (Channels 11, 12, 13, and Maariv) show the opposition bloc including Arab parties with at least 68 seats. i24news estimates 61 seats, and Channel 14 shows 58 seats for the opposition, with the coalition holding a 62-seat majority.
Polls also diverge on the "Zionist Home" party of Hendel and Tropper, which passes the threshold in four polls but remains below it in others. Hadash-Ta'al's seat count varies between 4 and 7 seats across polls, while Ra'am consistently holds 5 seats. A significant factor is the undecided voter segment, comprising 10-15% of the electorate, potentially equivalent to 20 seats. A Channel 12 poll indicates 55% of undecided voters lean toward a non-Netanyahu candidate, possibly benefiting the opposition by about 8 seats, while 16% favor Netanyahu and 29% remain uncertain.
The article also notes an increase in the demolition of illegal homes under Itamar Ben-Gvir's tenure and raises questions about when Israel might lose its "Zionist majority." Globes emphasizes its commitment to respectful and diverse discourse, filtering out any violent or inappropriate language.
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