Most Israelis Confident in Voting Choices as Right-Wing Support Grows Ahead of Fall Elections

A new JPPI poll ahead of Israel's expected fall elections reveals that 82% of Israelis are certain or fairly certain about their voting intentions, with only 14% still undecided. The undecided voters are mainly concentrated in the political center, highlighting the central political battleground for the upcoming elections. Among Jewish Israelis, right-wing identification has increased to 66%, up from 63% the previous year, while left-wing identification has declined to 19%. The political center has also grown slightly, with 13% identifying as centrist.

The poll shows no single coalition option commanding a majority. The most popular coalition, favored by 27% of respondents, is the "Change Bloc" including Arab parties. Support for a right-wing bloc coalition stands at 16%, with an additional 14% favoring a right-wing coalition supplemented by a centrist party. Preferences vary significantly by political affiliation: 68% of right-wing voters prefer a right-wing coalition, while 73% to 75% of left and center-left voters support a coalition including Arab parties. Among Likud voters, 42% prefer a right-wing coalition with an added centrist party rather than the current bloc alone.

Security remains the top voting issue for 28% of Israelis, followed by governance and judicial system concerns at 18%, advancing Israel as a liberal state at 15%, and national unity at 13%. However, priorities differ across political camps: right-wing voters prioritize security (40%) and judicial issues (30%), while center and left voters emphasize liberal values (35%-38%). In the Arab sector, security (34%) and the economy (26%) are leading concerns.

JPPI President Prof. Yedidia Stern noted that the political contest will focus on centrist voters, with judicial reform remaining a key identity issue for the right-wing camp even after years dominated by security concerns. He emphasized the need for a broad coalition post-election to establish political norms and reduce internal divisions, referencing ongoing efforts to draft a "thin constitution" to guide political discourse. The JPPI poll was conducted with weighted data representing the entire Israeli public, including the Arab sector, and was led by researchers Shmuel Rosner and Nah Selpakov.