Pollsters Clash Over Right-Wing Bloc's Majority in Final Election Push

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Israeli pollsters are divided on whether the right-wing bloc led by Benjamin Netanyahu will secure a majority in the upcoming Knesset elections. Shlomo Filber of Channel 14 consistently predicts a majority, while most other pollsters project the bloc falling short. Differences in methodology and interpretation of voter behavior are cited as reasons for the divergence. The final results will test the accuracy of these competing predictions, with factors like voter turnout and small parties potentially influencing the outcome.

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Pollster Shlomo Filber consistently predicts the right-wing bloc will win a majority of at least 61 seats in Israel's upcoming election.
Most other major Israeli pollsters project the right-wing bloc falling short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government.
Filber attributes poll discrepancies to differing interpretations of voter data, particularly undecided voters.
Other pollsters cite methodological differences in sampling, question wording, and data analysis for the varied results.
Voter turnout and the performance of parties near the electoral threshold are identified as key factors influencing the outcome.
The election results will serve as a major test for the accuracy of Israeli polling firms.

With Israel's 26th Knesset elections just seven days away, a significant divergence has emerged among pollsters regarding the potential for the right-wing bloc, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, to secure a majority of at least 61 seats independently. Shlomo Filber, pollster for Channel 14's NEXT DATA, consistently projects the right-wing bloc achieving this majority, a stark contrast to the findings of most major Israeli news outlets' polls, which show the bloc falling short.

This discrepancy is not merely about the number of mandates for individual parties but hinges on the critical question of whether Netanyahu can form a government solely with bloc partners. Filber's polls have shown the right-wing bloc reaching 61 to 64 seats, while polls from Channels 12, 13, and Kan 11, among others, place the bloc in the mid-to-high 40s. Filber attributes these differences not to varying data but to differing interpretations and analyses of voter behavior, particularly concerning a segment of former Likud and right-wing voters whose allegiance is currently uncertain.

Other pollsters, including Shmuel Rosner of Channel 13 and Menachem Lazar of Maariv, emphasize that poll discrepancies can arise from various methodological factors such as question wording, sample characteristics, data collection, and analysis methods. Yossi Tattika, head of Tattika Research, highlighted the importance of distinguishing between stated voting intentions and actual voting behavior on election day, noting that models for voter turnout and undecided voters can significantly impact results.

Key factors influencing the final outcome and the accuracy of polls include voter turnout among the Arab and Haredi populations, and the performance of smaller parties around the electoral threshold of 3.25%. Filber has warned that votes lost to parties failing to cross this threshold could cost the right-wing bloc the election. The upcoming election will serve as a significant test for all polling firms, particularly Filber, whose consistent projections of a right-wing majority will be validated or refuted by the actual results.