Deep Gaps Between Haredi Demands and 'Change Bloc' Could Derail Coalition Talks

Senior rabbis are expressing hope for joining the next government with the "change bloc" parties, feeling disappointed by their treatment from Prime Minister Netanyahu and his allies in recent years, particularly regarding the unfulfilled promise of an exemption from military conscription for yeshiva students. While United Torah Judaism is expected to lead this move, Shas is not anticipated to oppose it. However, beneath the surface of willingness to compromise lie significant and complex differences. The "change bloc" is prepared to be flexible on conscription but not on fundamental principles of religion and state. The clash between Haredi demands and the "change bloc's" red lines could quickly reveal a long road ahead to forming a coalition.

The Haredi community's primary concern is exemption from military service. However, Agudat Yisrael's demands extend to other sensitive religion-and-state issues that could complicate coalition entry, especially given figures like Avigdor Lieberman, Yair Golan, Naftali Bennett, and Yair Lapid's long-held aspirations to dismantle the status quo. The "Mashan" (giant generator) incident in 1999, where a power company transported a generator on roads during Shabbat, sparking outrage among Haredim and leading to United Torah Judaism's withdrawal from Ehud Barak's government, is frequently cited in current discussions.

The "change bloc" parties have introduced legislation concerning religion and state, including Yair Lapid's proposed same-sex partnership law for equal rights, and a legislative package by the Democrats for civil marriage, public transportation on Shabbat, and changes to rabbinical court authority. The Democrats also propose legislation to significantly impact Haredi educational networks if they do not teach core curriculum subjects, a topic that also occupied the previous Knesset.

Haredi parties are strongly opposed to official recognition of marriages performed outside the rabbinate, and public transportation on Shabbat is also a red line. The issue of Haredi educational networks is as crucial as conscription for the Haredi community, with opposition to state-Haredi educational frameworks for parents who desire them. Undermining the autonomy of Haredi education would require significant compromise.

Dr. Gilad Malach, a researcher at the Israel Democracy Institute, notes that the challenge lies not only in conscription but also in deep-seated civil issues. Key disputes involve the autonomy and oversight of Haredi education, coalition fund distribution, and constitutional matters. Ongoing conflicts over Shabbat, conversion, and the status of rabbinical courts are also significant hurdles. The ability to manage such a government routinely is questionable, with potential crises arising from Shabbat infrastructure work, Supreme Court rulings on conversion or rabbinical court authority, and benefits for those who served versus those who did not. Without clear prior arrangements, the government could face constant political crises.

Haredi parties will also need a coalition that supports them in re-passing laws already approved but now facing Supreme Court scrutiny. Three laws from the previous term concerning rabbinical court jurisdiction and the composition of the body electing chief rabbis are currently before the Supreme Court. These laws, developed by the Yachin Research Center, aim to counter previous Supreme Court rulings that sought to limit the authority of religious institutions. The Supreme Court has issued conditional orders in two cases, requiring the state to justify the current arrangements.

The four "greats" of the "change bloc" will need to make concessions during negotiations, but the final decision on approving an agreement will rest with the rabbis. Rabbi Dov Lando, the Lithuanian leader, has shifted his party away from the Netanyahu bloc and will determine its coalition stance, insisting on arrangements for yeshiva students. Rabbi Moshe Hillel Hirsch, a younger Lithuanian leader, is seen as more pragmatic. Rabbi Yaakov Aryeh Alter, the Gerer Rebbe, was a strong opponent of Netanyahu and pushed for his government's downfall. Yitzhak Goldknopf, chairman of Agudat Yisrael, resigned from the government due to the lack of a conscription exemption law. Rabbi Yisachar Dov Rokach, the Belzer Rebbe, has a different approach, supporting core curriculum studies and acknowledging young men from his community who enlist in the IDF.

The final decision will be approved by the Council of Torah Sages, with the Gerer Rebbe holding significant influence, alongside the Belzer Rebbe. Shas is expected to align with Agudat Yisrael if they pursue a government with the "change bloc." However, the path to an agreement is fraught with legal and political challenges, including opposition from more hardline rabbis and concerns about liberal legislation clashing with Haredi lifestyles. Precise legal formulations and agreements to avoid controversial legislation will be necessary.