US Midterms, Israeli Elections Weaken Trump-Netanyahu Alliance, Bishara Says

Azmi Bishara, Director General of the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, believes that a renewed war on Iran is unlikely in the current climate, citing a strong anti-war sentiment in the recent US congressional elections. He noted that while some encourage President Donald Trump to pursue military action, they recognize its limited impact. Bishara stated that the "demonic war alliance" between Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been weakened by the US midterm and Israeli elections, with the former signaling "the beginning of the end for Trump."

Speaking from Doha, Bishara explained that prior to the US elections, the situation was leaning towards either a military strike on Iran or a deal. However, the election results shifted this dynamic, weakening the "demonic war alliance." He suggested that Trump now favors allowing Qatari mediation to play a larger role, alongside continued economic sanctions on Iran. Bishara emphasized that the significant US vote against war is difficult to challenge, a sentiment echoed by Netanyahu. While the military option remains a possibility, he described it as "qualitatively further away than it was."

Bishara addressed Iran's defiant rhetoric as understandable in the context of its public opinion and desire for retribution, but noted that Iranian officials are aware of their economic limitations and inability to challenge the US. He posited that the current situation hinges on who will show flexibility first, suggesting potential scenarios involving Iran allowing nuclear inspectors and exporting enriched uranium, or a US announcement of halting hostilities and releasing frozen funds, followed by nuclear negotiations.

Regarding Iran's strategy in the Strait of Hormuz, Bishara called it Iran's "actual nuclear weapon," explaining that its mere capability to close the strait, rather than actual closure, deters action. He asserted that the Iranian people seek sanctions relief and economic prosperity, not the closure of Hormuz. Bishara also reiterated his stance that without a ground invasion, the Iranian regime cannot be overthrown, ruling out nuclear weapon use in any conflict.

Bishara characterized the US midterm election results as the "beginning of the end for Trump," highlighting democracy's self-correction mechanism. He observed a growing movement distancing itself from Trump, including within his own party and media outlets, and noted a nascent rebellion against the current relationship with Israel. He acknowledged that while Israeli influence in US power structures persists, it has diminished, evidenced by shifts in lobbying tactics and politicians distancing themselves from groups like AIPAC. Bishara attributed this decline in influence, particularly in the West, to internal US dynamics and public reaction to events in Gaza.

He also expressed concern about the "Arabization" of some Arab citizens within Israel, warning against accepting all conditions for government participation. Bishara suggested that Arab parties could maintain their national identity and principles while leveraging their position to achieve demands from outside the coalition, thereby providing a safety net for a potential government led by Gadi Eisenkot without compromising their values. He contrasted this with the risk of accepting unfavorable terms, referencing past instances where Arab political support led to negative consequences.

Bishara anticipates that a government led by Eisenkot would differ from Netanyahu's, particularly on domestic issues concerning Israel's identity and judicial powers. While differences on Palestinian and regional issues might not be radical, he suggested Eisenkot could be firmer with settlers, potentially ease sanctions on the Palestinian Authority, and foster better understanding with Arab nations. He concluded that Israel's image and international standing would likely improve with Netanyahu's departure, and that an Eisenkot government would be better received by the new US Congress.