Turkey Hoped for Netanyahu's Exit, Now Faces Geopolitical Stalemate

Turkey had anticipated that the Knesset elections would signal the end of Benjamin Netanyahu's political career, but current geopolitical realities suggest a more complex and enduring rivalry between Israel and Turkey. This strategic competition extends beyond the personal animosity between Prime Minister Netanyahu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, according to an analysis by researcher Mustafa Ensen of the InstituDE Research Institute, as reported by the "Maariv" newspaper.

The analysis, presented in a document titled "Anatomy of Israeli Expansion," characterizes Israel as a strategic rival to Turkey, warning that Jerusalem's regional policies are not temporary but indicative of deeper, long-term trends. This perspective, reflecting views from influential Turkish intelligence and state circles, sees Israel as a competitor in shaping a new regional order, rather than merely a state with political disagreements stemming from the Gaza conflict.

Published shortly after the Knesset elections resulted in a political deadlock, Ensen believes the identity of Israel's next prime minister will not significantly alter its foreign or defense policy. While acknowledging stylistic differences between Netanyahu and potential successor Gadi Eisenkot, Ensen asserts their core approaches to Iran, Syria, and Lebanon are unlikely to diverge substantially. Israel might continue military operations in Syria, maintain a presence in southern Lebanon, and view Iran as a strategic threat under either leader.

Furthermore, potential partners for Eisenkot are not inclined towards rapprochement with Ankara; for instance, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has previously described Turkey as a "new Iran." The report highlights Syria as the primary arena for Israeli-Turkish contention, with Ankara advocating for strong central governments and stable security structures, while Israel is perceived as favoring weak, fragmented states to facilitate its military operations and interventions.

Following the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, Syria has become a focal point of this rivalry. Turkey aims to bolster Damascus and expand its influence, whereas Israel seeks to protect its interests and prevent the rise of threatening forces. Ensen warns that the increased presence of both nations heightens the risk of military confrontation, especially without consistent U.S. mediation. While U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack has previously downplayed the public disputes between Erdogan and Netanyahu as political rhetoric, Ensen maintains the underlying confrontation is more profound than personal conflict, suggesting Ankara's hope for improved relations with Israel upon Netanyahu's departure was misplaced.