AI and Satellite Imagery Reveal Shift in Israeli Agriculture

For the first time, an artificial intelligence system combined with satellite imagery has mapped agricultural changes in Israel over the past seven years. The system, developed by the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security in collaboration with the Volcani Institute and Ben-Gurion University, reveals a significant increase in avocado and grape cultivation, alongside a decrease in citrus and deciduous fruit orchards. This innovative technology, the result of three years of work, utilizes tens of thousands of plots to train the AI model and allows for real-time monitoring of agricultural land.

The analysis, covering 2018-2025, indicates that while the total agricultural area has remained relatively stable at approximately 4.3-4.4 million dunams, the types of crops grown have changed considerably. These shifts are attributed to market demand, pricing, climate conditions, land and water availability, and economic viability. Previously, agricultural surveys were costly and infrequent, limiting the ability to respond to crises and plan policy effectively. The new system provides a more dynamic and data-driven approach, akin to real-time traffic applications.

Dr. Ofer Rosenstein from the Volcani Institute explained that the system, initially designed for 28 crops, was expanded to over 40, creating a dynamic map of what is grown where and when, tracking growth stages in real-time. This tool supports policy planning, agricultural research, market regulation, and subsidy management, enabling optimized resource allocation and rapid responses to events like tariff changes or war damage. The system will be accessible to farmers, researchers, and the public.

Specifically, avocado cultivation has surged by 56%, from 116,000 dunams in 2018 to about 181,000 dunams last year. Grapevine areas grew by 22%, and date cultivation saw a modest 9% increase. Conversely, deciduous orchards decreased by 16%, citrus areas by 14%, and olive groves by 7.4%. These changes reflect a complex interplay of factors including climate, water, production costs, market demand, and import competition.

A significant finding is the identification of approximately 160,000 dunams of agricultural land that have not been cultivated for at least three consecutive years, with about 73,000 dunams in the Negev desert. This data will help the ministry investigate the reasons for non-utilization and explore ways to bring these lands back into agricultural production. While the Negev's uncultivated land may be due to arid conditions and limited water, some areas, like corn cultivation, have expanded due to improved water infrastructure, including recycled water from the Shafdan wastewater treatment plant.

Field crop cultivation also shows market responsiveness, with chickpea (hummus) areas shrinking by 77%, a sharp decline starting in 2019-2020, largely due to increased imports and lower prices of foreign produce. The development of this system was also credited to Prof. Trin Paz-Kagan of Ben-Gurion University and doctoral student Lior Pein. The Central Bureau of Statistics, researchers, organizations, and farmers have already expressed interest in the system.