Israel Faces Complex Government Formation Amidst Hung Parliament

Israel is entering a critical phase of coalition negotiations following recent election results that failed to produce a clear parliamentary majority for either major political bloc. This situation opens the door to several possibilities, including a unity government, a minority government reliant on external support, or even a repeat election if legal avenues for forming a Knesset-approved coalition are exhausted. The Israeli President, Yitzhak Herzog, will initiate consultations with elected parties after the official results are published, with the mandate to task a Knesset member with forming a government within seven days. The law does not obligate the president to assign the task to the leader of the largest party; instead, the decision rests on the president's assessment of who has the best chance to assemble a government with Knesset confidence. Therefore, the Likud's leading position does not automatically guarantee Benjamin Netanyahu the mandate, as seat count alone is not decisive. Party recommendations and willingness to join or support a coalition are also crucial factors.

The tasked individual has 28 days to form a government, with a possible 14-day extension from the president, totaling up to 42 days for negotiations on policy, ministerial portfolios, and coalition composition. Once an agreement is reached, the proposed government must present its structure and policies to the Knesset for a confidence vote before commencing its duties.

Israeli law permits the formation of a minority government, which may not command a 61-seat majority, provided it secures parliamentary confidence through a simple majority vote. This allows parties not in the government to offer external support or abstain from voting against it. A historical precedent includes Yitzhak Rabin's 1992 government, which initially had a majority but later operated with 56 coalition members and external support. However, minority governments face challenges in passing legislation, especially the state budget, the failure of which can lead to the Knesset's dissolution.

Another potential path is a unity government comprising parties from both major blocs, aiming to overcome parliamentary divisions. Past examples include the 1984 government of Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Shamir, and Netanyahu's 2020 government with Benny Gantz. Such a coalition requires parties to compromise on pre-election pledges and resolve contentious issues, which can hinder decision-making and coalition stability. Currently, Gadi Eisenkot's bloc faces political hurdles, including the refusal of some opposition parties to rely on Arab party support, despite the significant impact of the Arab parties' seats on any coalition formation.

If the initially tasked individual fails to form a government or its proposed coalition does not gain Knesset confidence, the president has three days to decide. The president can either task another Knesset member with the mandate (without an extension) or inform the Knesset speaker that forming a government appears impossible. This latter scenario triggers a 21-day period where Knesset members can propose a candidate with at least 61 signatures. If successful, the president must task the candidate, who then has 14 days to form a government. Failure to do so, or if no candidate is agreed upon by 61 members within the timeframe, results in the automatic dissolution of the Knesset and new elections within 90 days. The outgoing government remains in office until a new one is formed, meaning Netanyahu could continue as caretaker prime minister if a new coalition fails to materialize.