Israel Faces Weeks of Uncertainty in Government Formation Scenarios

Following an election, Israel could face a prolonged period of government formation, with multiple scenarios playing out over several weeks. The outcome hinges on precise seat allocations, with a shift of just one or two mandates potentially altering the possibilities.

One potential scenario involves a "government of change 2.0," led by parties like Gadi Eisenkot's Yishar, Naftali Bennett's Be'Yahad, Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, and Yair Golan's Democrats. If Yishar emerges as the largest faction, Eisenkot is expected to become prime minister.

A contrasting scenario sees Benjamin Netanyahu forming a government, potentially with a coalition including Likud, ultra-Orthodox parties (Shas and Yahadut HaTorah), and far-right factions like Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism. The Am Israel Hai party, if it passes the electoral threshold, could also join this coalition.

Another possibility is a minority government, where the "change bloc" could form a government without an explicit 61-seat majority, relying on abstentions or non-participation from Arab parties. However, Eisenkot has stated he will not make deals with Arab or ultra-Orthodox parties. This scenario faces opposition from Lieberman, who fears it would lead to new elections and strengthen Netanyahu. A government formed this way would likely need to rely on the votes of Arab parties or Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox for budgets and concessions, which Eisenkot has vowed to avoid, potentially leading to the government's collapse.

A national unity government, potentially with a rotation of the prime minister role between Netanyahu and Eisenkot, is also considered if neither bloc can secure a majority. This option has been previously dismissed by both leaders.

If no government can be formed, Israel could face repeat elections, with Netanyahu potentially leading a transitional government. The Central Elections Committee has eight days to publish official results, expected by October 29, with the new Knesset sworn in on November 10. President Isaac Herzog will then begin consultations, with the mandate to form a government typically given to the candidate with the most recommendations. The designated candidate has 28 days, extendable by 14, to present a government. If unsuccessful, the president can task another candidate for 28 days or declare the task impossible. A final 21-day window exists for 61 Knesset members to propose a candidate, who then has 14 days to form a government. Failure to form a government in any of these stages leads to automatic Knesset dissolution and new elections, though past experience suggests results may not significantly change.