Analysis: Strategic Blunders Cost Parties in Recent Israeli Elections

Recent Israeli election results indicate a political stalemate, with neither the right-wing nor the left-wing bloc able to form a government. The analysis suggests that strategic missteps by various parties, particularly within the right-wing bloc, prevented them from achieving a decisive victory.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party is criticized for failing to cultivate a "soft right" satellite party over the years, which could have provided crucial additional mandates. Instead, Netanyahu's focus on combating potential rivals like Ofer Winter, and the perceived "paranoia" surrounding him, is seen as having cost the right-wing bloc at least two seats. The article also points to the failure of parties like Smotrich and Ben-Gvir to appeal to disillusioned right-wing voters who did not find a home in Likud or their own parties, leading these voters to either abstain or vote for parties that ultimately fell below the electoral threshold.

Furthermore, the campaign strategies of Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir are blamed for alienating the Arab sector. Their rhetoric, perceived as aggressive and focused on Judea and Samaria, reportedly fueled a strong counter-campaign among Arab citizens, leading to unprecedented voter turnout and a significant bloc of 19 seats for Arab parties. While this boosted Arab representation, it did not translate into a majority for the right-wing bloc and may have contributed to the underperformance of parties like Ben-Gvir and Smotrich themselves.

On the left, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and MK Gadi Eisenkot are criticized for shifting their focus too far left, alienating their natural right-wing base. Their campaigns, which included statements on judicial reform and state commissions of inquiry, are seen as having failed to resonate with right-wing voters. This internal "cannibalism" within the bloc, rather than attracting new voters, is described as a key factor in their limited success.

Ofer Winter's independent run is highlighted as a major strategic error. His decision to run alone, rather than merging with other parties like the Likud or a combined Händel-Zelicha list, is attributed to ego. The intense campaign against him, aimed at preventing him from crossing the electoral threshold, is seen as having successfully eliminated him and potentially cost the right-wing bloc two seats. Händel and Zelicha also failed to cross the threshold, with factors like Händel's political shifts and Winter's competition for votes cited as reasons for their failure.