Reporter Analyzes Three Scenarios for Israeli Government Formation

Yara Shapira, a reporter for Kan News, analyzed the emerging results of the 26th Knesset elections, stating that while the formation of the next government remains uncertain, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already suffered a significant political defeat. Shapira noted on her X account that even if a clear winner of the election is not yet apparent, Netanyahu is definitively a loser. She explained that the outgoing coalition has 68 members of Knesset, while preliminary projections suggest Netanyahu's bloc will secure only about 50 seats, insufficient for him to form a government alone.

Shapira attributed the high voter turnout to a desire for change or dissatisfaction with current representatives, countering the notion within Netanyahu's bloc that it explains the results. She suggested that some in the Haredi public abstained from voting as a quiet protest, while the Arab public voted in higher numbers than in previous elections, potentially leading to another election cycle.

Regarding Netanyahu's continued tenure since October 7th, Shapira argued that the current results indicate his staying power is not due to broad public support but rather the inability of his opponents to agree on an alternative candidate. She wrote that Netanyahu remains in power not because the majority wants him, but because the majority seeking to oust him struggles to agree on his successor.

Shapira outlined three potential scenarios for forming the next government. The first involves a minority government supported by Arab parties, which she believes would contradict election promises made by leaders in the "change bloc." The second scenario is a defection from Netanyahu's bloc, either a whole party or individual Knesset members, to create an alternative majority. The third possibility is a unity government, potentially including a rotation agreement for the premiership.

Shapira estimated that Gadi Eisenkot would pursue the first two scenarios simultaneously. She also speculated that once the results are clear, Netanyahu might propose a unity government with a rotation. However, the order of the rotation would be crucial. Shapira contended that if Eisenkot agrees to Netanyahu serving first, it could severely damage Eisenkot's political future. Conversely, Eisenkot serving first might contradict his prior election promise, leading Shapira to conclude that the flexibility of that promise will become evident in the coming weeks and months.