Israeli Election Poll Shows Netanyahu Bloc Falling Short of Majority

A poll conducted by Kan 11 News, released Tuesday evening as voting closed for the 26th Knesset, presents a significantly different outcome than other surveys, projecting the Netanyahu bloc with only 50 mandates. In contrast, the Eisenkot bloc is predicted to secure 53 mandates. The Arab parties collectively are expected to win 17 mandates.

The Likud party, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, is projected to remain the largest party with 25 mandates, a decrease from other polls. Gadi Eisenkot's Yesh party is forecast to receive 21 mandates, and Naftali Bennett's Together party is expected to get 14 mandates. Yair Golan's Democrats are predicted to win 10 mandates, while Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu is projected to receive 8 mandates, double its result in a competing poll.

Significant discrepancies are also noted among coalition parties. Shas and United Torah Judaism are each expected to win 6 mandates, a drop from other projections. Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit is forecast to receive 7 mandates, and Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism and Identity party is predicted to get 6 mandates.

Among Arab parties, the Hadash-Ta'al list is projected to win 10 mandates, with Ra'am receiving 7, totaling 17 mandates for Arab parties, consistent with other polls, attributed to high voter turnout in the Arab sector. Parties such as Am Israel, the Handel-Zalicha list, the Haredi public, and Noam are predicted to fall below the electoral threshold.

The primary divergence between polls lies in the bloc allocations. While one poll suggests the right-wing bloc could reach 60 mandates, the Kan 11 poll places Netanyahu's bloc at just 50 mandates. Substantial differences are also observed within individual parties, most notably a five-mandate gap for the Likud and a four-mandate difference for Yisrael Beiteinu.