Israeli Election Results Deepen Societal Divides, Hamper Stable Government Formation

Recent Israeli election results have exacerbated societal divisions and made the formation of a stable government extremely difficult, according to Dr. Salim Brik, a political science lecturer. He stated that no political bloc currently possesses a clear majority needed to guarantee stability, attributing the ongoing political crisis to deep social fissures within Israel. Brik noted that while initial voting trends are clear, forming a coalition that can endure remains a significant challenge.

Brik explained that Benjamin Netanyahu's continued political strength is partly due to the support of Mizrahi voters, a segment of whom view Netanyahu as a strong leader focused on future achievements rather than past failures. This perception is further bolstered by Netanyahu's image as capable of confronting Palestinians, Iran, and Hezbollah, an image reinforced by former U.S. President Donald Trump's support. Changes in local political figures' stances towards Netanyahu, as seen in Kiryat Shmona, and increased Likud votes in several towns reflect these political calculations.

However, Brik warned that this success might push centrist and right-wing Israeli parties closer together, viewing Arab parties as a threat to their political agenda.

Regarding the possibility of forming a government without Netanyahu, Brik suggested it is possible but requires Gadi Eisenkot to persuade Avigdor Lieberman and other opposition figures. He indicated that while Lieberman might show flexibility, any interim government formed to oust Netanyahu might ultimately lead to new elections. Eisenkot faces a dilemma in potentially relying on Arab parties' support while risking future elections.

Brik anticipates Netanyahu will leverage his political experience to weaken opposition parties, especially Eisenkot's relatively new Yachad party. Netanyahu's strengthened position within the Likud may enhance his ability to influence opponents and attract defectors. Brik ruled out a national unity government involving Netanyahu, Eisenkot, and Lieberman due to stated opposition stances but did not dismiss potential shifts in alliances.

Concerning the impact of counting remaining votes, particularly from "double envelopes" (likely absentee or special ballots), Brik expects minor changes that might affect seat distribution among parties like Likud, Eisenkot's party, and Naftali Bennett's party, with less impact on Arab and Haredi parties. He also dismissed the possibility of the United Arab List supporting a government including Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, given their opposing stances. Brik concluded that the Israeli political scene remains fluid, but the deep political and social crises make a stable government elusive, with new elections remaining a strong possibility.