Israeli Election Analysis Warns of Hardline National Unity Government

Professor Amal Jamal, Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences at Tel Aviv University, has analyzed preliminary Israeli election results, suggesting a slight advantage for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition bloc despite positive signs for the opposition. Jamal based his assessment on provisional data from the Central Elections Committee, noting that final results could alter the balance.

Jamal highlighted that Arab parties have a significant political opportunity, as the Arab community's vote indicates a desire for these parties to play a stronger role. However, he stressed that realizing this influence requires opposition parties to be willing to incorporate the Arab vote into any potential coalition. He noted the current opposition lacks a clear alternative to Netanyahu without Arab party support, a situation more complex than when the Joint List secured 15 seats previously, as key figures like Gadi Eisenkot now lead parties with hard-right leanings, including those of Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, making cooperation more challenging.

According to Jamal's analysis of the preliminary data, the Joint List won 11 seats and the United Arab List secured 4 seats. He interpreted these results as a desire for political influence without accepting coalition entry at any cost. Jamal suggested Arab parties could proactively support Eisenkot in forming a minority government, with external backing from the Joint List, rather than waiting for an opposition initiative. He believes the high Arab voter turnout reflects a strong desire to oust the current government, which Arab parties can leverage in negotiations, even if it leads to new elections within 14-15 months.

Jamal cautioned against a national unity government involving the Likud, Bennett, Lieberman, and Bezalel Smotrich, predicting it would be highly detrimental to the Arab community by strengthening the hard-right within the government. Such a government, he warned, could perpetuate hostile policies toward the Arab community and maintain Israel's security approach toward Lebanon and Iran. He concluded that while the situation remains fluid, the President's role in tasking Eisenkot with government formation will be crucial, especially if Eisenkot clearly signals his readiness to form a government with Arab party support. Jamal also pointed to Avigdor Lieberman as a potential kingmaker, noting that an agreement between him and Netanyahu might emerge if other coalition options fail.