Shas Faces Potential Mandate Loss as United Torah Judaism Leads in Knesset Race

As the 26th Knesset election results are tallied, a significant political shift is occurring within the Haredi political landscape. With 85.6% of votes counted, United Torah Judaism (UTJ) and Shas are currently tied at seven mandates each. However, UTJ holds a substantial lead of approximately 18,600 votes over Shas.

There is considerable concern within Shas, led by Arie Deri, that the party could lose a mandate during the counting of double envelopes, potentially reducing their representation to six seats. This would mark the party's lowest result since 1992 and a significant blow to its standing as the leading Haredi party.

The vote count reveals a notable change in the internal Haredi political balance. UTJ has garnered 276,498 votes compared to Shas's 257,898. Shas is anxiously awaiting the final count, particularly the double envelopes, fearing a drop to six mandates.

Analysis of voting data indicates a sharp decline in Shas's support in various cities, including Dimona (48.5% decrease), Netivot (46.3%), Ofakim (45%), Sderot (42.1%), and Ashkelon (39.9%). Declines were also seen in Netanya (39%), Ashdod (37.2%), and Holon (29.6%). Even in cities with significant Haredi populations, Shas experienced a decrease, though generally at lower rates, such as 21.5% in Safed, 15.34% in Jerusalem, and similar figures in Tiberias.

Political analysts suggest several factors contributed to Shas's electoral setback. Arie Deri's handling of the conscription law and his stance on draft dodgers reportedly disappointed some of the party's voters in the periphery and those who support conscription. Additionally, internal power struggles and tensions with certain rabbinical courts may have alienated some conservative Haredi communities.

In contrast, UTJ has maintained its support and widened its lead. A poll by Kikar HaShabbat among the Haredi public showed UTJ receiving 48% of the Haredi vote, compared to 32% for Shas. Approximately 80% of the entire Haredi sector voted for these two established parties, with UTJ leading significantly.

Both parties emphasize that the results are not final, with attention now focused on the counting of roughly half a million double envelopes. These votes, cast by soldiers, hospital patients, and diplomats, could alter the mandate distribution and impact parties near the electoral threshold. The Central Elections Committee confirmed that hundreds of ballot boxes are still undergoing verification, and their results will be added later. The counting of the double envelopes is expected to begin at midnight.