Pollster Defends Unconventional Election Forecast Amidst Pressure
תומצת מתוך Arutz Sheva על ידי baba
Direct Polls founder Tzuriel Sharon detailed the pressure and technological investment behind his firm's unique election forecast for the 2026 elections. Despite differing from other surveys, preliminary results suggest Direct Polls' predictions were accurate, particularly on key metrics like the Likud's mandate. Sharon highlighted the importance of professional independence and data integrity in polling, even when facing criticism or pressure to conform.
הידיעה ב-5 שורות · תקציר של baba
- Direct Polls founder Tzuriel Sharon stood by his firm's divergent election forecast amidst pressure.
- Preliminary results suggest Direct Polls' predictions aligned closely with actual vote counts.
- The company invested heavily in technology to ensure the accuracy of its polling models.
- Sharon emphasized the importance of pollster independence from political expectations.
- Direct Polls did not adjust its forecast on election night despite differing initial reports.
Direct Polls founder and pollster Tzuriel Sharon revealed the intense pressure and technological investment behind his firm's election forecast, which differed significantly from other surveys during the 2026 elections. While other pollsters presented varying outcomes, Direct Polls remained steadfast with its data, which preliminary results indicate align closely with their predictions, particularly regarding the Likud party's mandate and the bloc power balance. Sharon described the election night as a "test of fire," where his team faced criticism and attempts to sway their findings but chose to trust their methodology and data.
Sharon detailed the extensive technological upgrades Direct Polls implemented over the past year to enhance its research and polling capabilities, preparing for the election. He noted that the company worked with clients across the political spectrum and maintained relationships with most Israeli party leaders, acknowledging that their findings were not always met with agreement. Despite pressure and differing forecasts from competitors, Direct Polls meticulously re-examined their models, work methods, and assumptions to ensure their forecast reflected reality rather than conforming to expectations.
On election night, Direct Polls' forecast, broadcast on i24NEWS, presented a notably different picture than other networks, especially concerning the distribution between political blocs. Sharon stated that Direct Polls informed the channel's management beforehand that they would not adjust their forecast during the night, a decision stemming from confidence in their work. As partial results emerged, Sharon reported a strong correlation with their initial assessment, particularly for the Likud's seat count and the overall bloc dynamics, though he cautioned that final results were still pending.
Sharon emphasized that the experience underscored the importance of professional independence for pollsters, asserting their role is to present findings accurately, even when surprising or controversial, rather than catering to specific political camps or expectations. He also extended gratitude to his team and i24NEWS for their support throughout the process, concluding with a commitment to continue their professional approach.
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