Netanyahu Faces Strategic Choice on Mandate After Election

Following the recent elections, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is contemplating a strategic decision regarding the mandate to form a government. He faces a choice between accepting the mandate first to influence the Knesset's agenda or waiting for his rivals to fail, hoping their fear of new elections will make them more amenable. However, waiting carries risks, with the Joint List and Ra'am holding significant influence.

Preliminary results, with about 66% of votes counted, show Netanyahu's bloc with 55 seats, the opposing bloc with 47, and the Joint List and Ra'am together holding 18 seats. These figures are not final.

If Netanyahu accepts the mandate first, he will have 28 days, potentially extendable by 14, to form a government. This position would allow him to negotiate as the official candidate and potentially influence the Knesset's Arrangements Committee, which typically includes a member from the mandate holder's party. This committee can affect legislative pace and potentially hinder attempts to advance laws against Netanyahu or the outgoing government.

However, securing the first mandate does not guarantee control. The committee's composition depends on party sizes, and Arab parties' support is crucial. The advantage is also limited coalition-wise, as parties in the opposing bloc are unlikely to switch allegiances immediately.

Alternatively, Netanyahu could wait for a rival to attempt forming a government first. If that attempt fails after weeks of negotiation among parties with deep ideological divides, political pressure would mount, increasing the fear of new elections. This scenario might lead parties initially unwilling to negotiate with Netanyahu to reconsider or compromise, potentially allowing him to propose unity government or other political arrangements as the last resort before another election.

This waiting strategy is risky. There's no guarantee the first candidate will fail; the opposing bloc might form a government with support from Ra'am and the Joint List, leaving Netanyahu without a second chance. His rivals could also gain Knesset majority and control the Arrangements Committee during this period.

The Joint List and Ra'am are key players. Their support for the opposing bloc in Knesset votes could enable them to control the Arrangements Committee and advance legislation even before a government is formed. If their support includes recommending a candidate to the president and providing coalition backing, it could lead to a government without a Jewish majority. If the Joint List refuses support or sets unacceptable conditions, the opposing bloc might fail, making Netanyahu's second option viable.