Finance Minister Smotrich Fails to Break 'Curse' Despite Feiglin Alliance

An apparent "curse" on Israeli Finance Ministers, where their party suffers in subsequent elections, may have continued with Bezalel Smotrich. Historically, when a party leader takes the Finance Ministry portfolio, their party's electoral strength declines in the following election. Ahead of the recent vote, Smotrich's alliance with Moshe Feiglin, leader of the Zehut party, was seen as a potential way to break this trend.

Smotrich's Religious Zionism party had struggled to pass the electoral threshold in some polls, while Feiglin's independent bid for Knesset faced similar challenges. The agreement placed Feiglin second on the joint list and secured spots for his associates, while giving Smotrich access to a broader voter base. The combined list is projected to win six Knesset seats: five for Religious Zionism and one for Zehut, headed by Feiglin.

For Feiglin, this represents a significant political achievement, especially after failing to enter the Knesset in 2019 despite generating considerable public interest. However, he is expected to be Zehut's sole representative in the upcoming Knesset, indicating he did not bring substantial electoral power to the alliance.

The merger appears to have been politically beneficial for Smotrich, even if not to the extent hoped for. Before the September announcement, Religious Zionism was polling precariously close to the electoral threshold. In the week following the alliance, the joint list's support jumped to five to seven seats in most polls. This union is estimated to have added about two seats to the coalition bloc by consolidating votes that might otherwise have fallen below the threshold.

Despite the alliance securing Smotrich's Knesset presence and giving Feiglin a path back to national politics, it has not, according to initial results, lifted Smotrich out of the "Finance Minister's curse." Religious Zionism secured five seats for its own candidates, compared to seven in the 2022 elections when it ran with Otzma Yehudit and Noam. While this result maintains a significant political presence, it highlights an electoral cost for Smotrich after four years in the Finance Ministry, failing to improve upon the previous election's performance.