Beyond Netanyahu: Israeli Elections and Policy Continuity

Even if the upcoming Israeli elections result in the removal of Benjamin Netanyahu's current government, it will not guarantee a fundamental policy shift unless accompanied by a significant change in the policies that have shaped Israel's current trajectory. While the Palestinian issue is not a central theme in the elections, Israeli analyses suggest that the October 7th attack and the subsequent war highlight the limitations of relying on security measures to control the conflict without addressing its political roots. The current elections appear to be a contest between a bloc advocating for the continuation of policies that have deepened the occupation and annexation of Palestinian territories, and another bloc that might adjust some policies to mitigate international costs, without necessarily embracing a comprehensive political settlement or recognizing Palestinian statehood.

Netanyahu is promoting a strategy of continued settlement expansion and annexation, alongside the displacement of Gazans into camps while the Israeli military controls much of the Gaza Strip, even if it escalates external pressure. This is evidenced by his government's commitment to settlement plans and his remarks about using cryptocurrency if Israel is cut off from the international financial system. While not necessarily indicating an imminent financial isolation, this signals a readiness to bear significant economic and diplomatic costs to defend the government's policies in the occupied territories.

Domestically, Netanyahu's efforts to weaken the judiciary and law enforcement appear linked to his personal legal challenges, but also to a broader political agenda of reducing executive branch constraints. Legal interpretations suggest this confrontation with the Supreme Court, the Attorney General, and the police is part of a pattern to undermine institutions that monitor or hold the government accountable. This trajectory serves the interests of the current government coalition: Netanyahu seeks to protect his political and legal standing, while Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich aim to advance a hardline religious-nationalist agenda focused on Jewish supremacy and territorial control. Ultra-Orthodox parties seek to preserve their privileges.

The influence of extremist settler and religious-nationalist factions is growing, with positions that threaten Palestinians and undermine Israeli institutions. Uriel Reichman, founder of Reichman University, warned earlier this year of a political coup and the risk of a dictatorship, with the government following authoritarian playbook tactics like controlling media and public opinion. He noted the immediate appointment of Ben-Gvir to head the police and border guards post-election as a typical move in coups, seizing control of forces with the power to use lethal force against citizens.