Israel Election Explained: From Ballots to Government Formation

Israel's 26th Knesset elections concluded on Tuesday, October 27th, with preliminary data indicating the highest voter turnout since 1988, notably including unprecedented activity from Arab voters. The vote count is now underway, involving local election commissions verifying ballots against voter lists. Final results are expected by Thursday, October 29th, though the Central Election Committee has until November 4th to officially publish them.

Election inspectors monitored polling stations, reporting approximately 10,000 incidents, of which 2,000 were dismissed and the rest investigated. The Central Election Committee will scrutinize data for irregularities. While preliminary results will be released by news outlets on election night, these are based on samples and may differ from final outcomes, especially in close races. Official data will be published on the committee's website starting Wednesday night, October 28th, with continuous updates.

A significant portion of the vote count involves "double envelope" ballots from soldiers, police, hospital patients, the elderly, prisoners, and those voting at accessible polling stations. Votes from Israeli representatives abroad, cast on October 15th, will also be counted starting October 28th. These double envelopes are checked at the Knesset to prevent double voting; any instances found will be reported to the police and the ballots invalidated.

The Central Election Committee anticipates a 44% increase in double envelope ballots compared to the previous election, estimating around 650,000, partly due to reservist call-ups and evacuations from conflict zones. These ballots could represent up to 15 parliamentary seats, potentially deciding the fate of parties near the electoral threshold.

The process of allocating parliamentary seats involves verifying valid ballots, identifying parties that fall below the 3.25% electoral threshold, and calculating seats based on votes for qualifying parties. "Excess votes" agreements between parties can transfer surplus votes to allies, potentially securing additional seats. Any remaining "unclaimed" seats are distributed using the Bader-Ofer method, favoring parties with the most votes.

The number of votes required per seat depends on turnout. With an estimated 70% turnout, the electoral threshold is projected to be around 165,635 votes, a rise from the 36,000 votes per mandate in 2022. The newly elected Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on November 10th. Following the official results, the President will consult with party factions to recommend a prime minister candidate. Within seven days of the Knesset's swearing-in, the President will task the leading candidate with forming a government, granting them 28 days, extendable by 14 days. If a government isn't formed within 42 days, the President may task another candidate or call for new elections.