Israel's Election Night: Three Historic Decisions Loom

The Knesset building buzzed with activity on election day, resembling a central election committee headquarters as staff worked to count votes. The atmosphere conveyed a sense of ongoing democratic process, despite attempts to delay or cancel the elections. The article speculates that if the election results align with recent polls, three key figures will face historic decisions.

First, Gadi Eisenkot, chairman of the Yesh! party and former IDF Chief of Staff, is expected to receive the mandate to form a government. He will need to decide whether to form a minority government relying on the support of Arab parties, a move he has not explicitly committed to during his campaign. Such a government, potentially lasting only a few months, would depend on the Arab parties not to bring it down and might hope for defectors from other parties. This scenario would lead to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's departure from power, a significant event in Israeli history.

Second, Avigdor Lieberman, chairman of Yisrael Beiteinu, faces a critical choice. If the "change bloc" does not secure a clear majority, Lieberman must decide whether to break his promise against forming a minority government dependent on Arab parties. Doing so could oust Netanyahu but would likely alienate his right-wing base. Refusing to compromise could lead to another round of elections, similar to April 2019.

Third, Benjamin Netanyahu will have to decide his political future if Eisenkot succeeds in forming a minority government. He could become the opposition leader or retire from politics, possibly in exchange for a presidential pardon. Some of his associates believe he will not concede and will work to destabilize any new government. His departure could pave the way for a unity government involving Yesh!, Yachad, Likud, and other parties.

The article acknowledges these scenarios are uncertain and do not account for dramatic results or external events like a renewed conflict with Iran. Such a war could complicate government formation and the acting prime minister's ability to make critical decisions. However, the article states that a war with Iran would not lead to a unity government with Netanyahu, as leaders of the "change bloc" are reportedly resolute on this point. The piece also criticizes mainstream media for allegedly failing to disclose Netanyahu's health status during the election campaign, citing unconfirmed claims from protest activists about advanced prostate cancer.