Inside Israel's Election Exit Polls: Algorithms, Deception, and Countdown

Israel's pivotal election day culminates tonight at 10 PM with the broadcast of exit poll results on Channel 12. The process involves selecting 70 representative polling stations from approximately 13,000 nationwide, chosen via a statistical model developed by Mano Geva to best reflect national voting patterns. Dummy polling stations are set up near these real ones, where exit poll representatives approach voters as they leave.

Voters are invited to anonymously recreate their vote using a tablet that displays party ballots, aiming to match their actual ballot. This method differs from pre-election surveys, which gauge current voting intentions. Exit polls, by contrast, ask those who have already voted to recall their choice, providing a snapshot of the election outcome immediately after polls close.

Adi Geva, Deputy CEO of the Midgam Institute, explains that while surveys show current trends, "there is always last-minute dynamics." The exit poll's accuracy relies on voter cooperation, as some may refuse to participate or misrepresent their vote. The institute employs a behavioral model, the specifics of which are kept secret, to identify and correct for "lies" or inaccurate responses, utilizing technology and AI.

Mano Geva, CEO of the Midgam Institute, noted that "science is not supposed to know how to deal with lies" and that he "lost his innocence in the 2019 elections." The initial results released at 10 PM do not include votes from the last 45-75 minutes before polls close, as data processing begins earlier. As the night progresses, actual results from the sampled polling stations are integrated, gradually replacing the exit poll data and refining the projections.