Iran's Strategy to Influence US Elections Via Oil Prices Creates Risks for Israel
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Iran is attempting to influence the US elections by attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz to raise global oil prices, according to analyst Gershon Kogan. This maritime escalation has already increased oil prices and US inflation, with the IRGC aiming to disrupt shipping. However, experts note Iran's military weakness and the potential for a backlash from US voters. For Israel, these scenarios pose risks of operational restrictions or increased regional instability, making freedom of military action a priority.
הידיעה ב-6 שורות · תקציר של baba
- Iran is attempting to influence US elections by attacking ships to raise oil prices, according to analyst Gershon Kogan.
- Maritime attacks have caused oil prices to exceed $106 per barrel and US inflation to reach 3.7%.
- The IRGC aims to disrupt oil transport from the Persian Gulf by imposing its own shipping rules.
- Experts question Iran's military capability and predict a potential backlash from US voters.
- Israel faces risks of operational limitations or increased regional instability due to Iran's actions.
- Jerusalem's priority is maintaining military freedom of action amidst US election developments.
Iran is attempting to interfere in the upcoming US elections by leveraging global energy prices, according to orientalist and analyst Gershon Kogan of the Begin-Sadat Center (BESA). The Iranian leadership aims to provoke a surge in US gasoline prices before the November congressional vote by conducting asymmetric attacks on civilian tankers and merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. This strategy, Kogan suggests, is intended to compel Washington to ease pressure on Tehran. The maritime escalation has already resulted in the sinking of several ships, including the Singaporean container ship GFS Pride, and has caused a sharp increase in freight insurance costs. Consequently, the price of a Brent crude oil barrel has surpassed $106, and annual inflation in the US has risen to 3.7%, with fuel price hikes being the primary driver. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has openly declared its intention to establish its own shipping rules in the international strait, aiming to make oil transportation from the Persian Gulf as costly and risky as possible.
However, experts point to significant flaws in the Iranian leadership's calculations. Militarily, Iran cannot withstand the US fleet, and after losing key coastal infrastructure, the IRGC is forced to use primitive civilian vessels for missile and drone guidance. Furthermore, the attempt to blackmail Americans through gasoline prices could backfire, potentially leading voters to demand a decisive military response from the administration instead of peace. The global oil market is also showing resilience, gradually rerouting logistical flows to bypass the dangerous zone.
For Israel, any scenario unfolding around the US elections presents serious challenges. If a deal between Washington and Tehran is reached under price pressure, Israeli forces might face operational limitations in Syria and Lebanon. An escalation scenario increases the risk of pro-Iranian groups becoming more active along Israel's borders. Therefore, Jerusalem's key objective is to maintain complete freedom of action militarily until the composition of the US legislature changes.
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