Multinational Force Deployment Delayed in Gaza, Hamas Gains Time to Rebuild

The planned deployment of a multinational force in the Gaza Strip, part of a broader peace council initiative, is now expected to be delayed until at least October 2026, with some estimates suggesting it may only occur after Israel's upcoming elections. Morocco is set to contribute approximately 500 troops, while Kosovo and Albania are expected to send smaller contingents. Meanwhile, the establishment of the "Green Rafah" neighborhood in eastern Rafah, promoted by the United Arab Emirates, has also been postponed, with groundwork and infrastructure preparations only recently approved and construction unlikely to begin before November 2026.

The Israeli Security Agency (Shin Bet) is working to train local militias to serve as an alternative governing force in Gaza, particularly in the area designated as "Green Rafah," which is intended to be free of Hamas control. However, previous attempts to empower such militias have failed, with key figures like Yasser Abu Shabab killed and remaining groups unable to establish effective authority. The civilian component of the peace plan, including the entry of a Palestinian technocratic committee into Gaza, remains stalled.

Behind the scenes, Mohammed Dahlan is advancing a large humanitarian aid and reconstruction project in Gaza on behalf of the UAE, aiming to strengthen his political base. The delays in implementing the peace plan provide Hamas with valuable time to rearm, recruit new members, and rebuild its capabilities. With Israeli military operations currently paused, Hamas is expected to exploit this period to consolidate power, while political developments and the approaching Israeli elections may further prolong this interim phase.