Multinational Force Entry to Gaza Delayed Until October Amid Post-Ceasefire Challenges

Despite the ceasefire and halt of Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) strikes in Gaza, the implementation of the 15-point peace council plan remains far from realization. Although the ceasefire is in effect, the multinational force intended to stabilize the region is not expected to deploy before October, with a real possibility that the move will be postponed until after Israel’s upcoming elections. The delay is largely due to difficulties in assembling the multinational force, with Morocco slated to contribute around 500 troops, while Albania and Kosovo are expected to provide only a few dozen fighters each. Israeli assessments indicate that the force’s deployment is unlikely in the near term.

Additionally, the initiative to establish the "Green Rafah" zone, a key element within Israeli-controlled areas behind the security line, is still in early stages. The United Arab Emirates is advancing plans to build a new neighborhood in eastern Rafah, recently approving groundwork and infrastructure preparations. However, this process is expected to take about six months, with the installation of temporary housing units not anticipated before November 2026, after the elections.

Meanwhile, the Israeli Security Agency (Shin Bet) is attempting to incorporate local militia leaders into the plan to help create a Hamas-free zone. The civilian component of the plan is also stalled, with no immediate prospects for the Palestinian technocrats committee to enter Gaza. Behind the scenes, Mohammed Dahlan is actively involved, spearheading a large humanitarian aid project and promoting reconstruction efforts on behalf of the UAE, while simultaneously working to strengthen his political support base.